Odds overview
Iceland are clear favourites: an Iceland win is offered at 1.35, while the draw is 5.10 and a Luxembourg win is 9.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. Iceland (-1) are quoted at 1.52, while Luxembourg (+1) are available at 2.45; the larger Iceland (-1.5) handicap is offered at 2.00.
Why Iceland are favourites
The bookmakers favour Iceland: a home win is offered at 1.35. The draw is 5.10, while a Luxembourg win is 9.00.
- The hosts have been picking up points consistently: Iceland are unbeaten in 7 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- The visitors have regularly lost to their opponents: Luxembourg have been beaten in 7 of their last 10 competitive matches.
Form and Line-up Iceland
Iceland go into the November match after an emphatic away win: on 13 November, they thrashed Bulgaria 5:0. Earlier in this Nations League campaign, Iceland beat Bulgaria 3:0 at home and drew twice with Estonia — 0:0 and 1:1.
Following squad absences ahead of the match against Luxembourg, Iceland called up defenders Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason and Hjörtur Hermannsson, along with forward Sævar Atli Magnússon.
- Iceland's opponents scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- Iceland took more than 3.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
Probable line-up: Hákon Valdimarsson, Victor Pálsson, Daniel Grétarsson, Logi Tómasson, Mikael Ellertsson, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Arnór Sigurdsson, Ísak Jóhannesson, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Andri Gudjohnsen, Orri Óskarsson.
Hordur Magnusson is suspended after accumulating too many yellow cards. Kristall Ingason and Stefán Teitur Þórðarson will also miss the match through injury.
Form and Line-up Luxembourg
Luxembourg are having a difficult autumn: on 13 November, they lost 0:1 at home to Estonia. It was another defeat in a run of setbacks — they had previously lost to Bulgaria (0:2) and away to Estonia (0:1). Their only win in the competition came in September, when they beat Bulgaria (2:1).
- There were fewer than 3.5 goals in each of Luxembourg's last 10 competitive matches.
- Luxembourg took fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away Nations League matches.
Probable line-up: Anthony Moris, Laurent Jans, Vahid Selimovic, Florian Bohnert, Mathias Olesen, Vincent Thill, Tim Hall, Sébastien Thill, Tomás de Sousa Moreira, Hamza Kadamani, Aiman Dardari.
The visitors are without Leandro Barreiro, Danel Sinani, Kiki Martins, Ivan Valdemar Borges and Seid Korac through injury.
The teams' chances
An Iceland win is offered at 1.35; the fair odds are 1.41, implying a 70.7% probability. The draw is 5.10, with fair odds of 5.34 and an 18.7% probability. A Luxembourg win at 9.00 has fair odds of 9.43 and a 10.6% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland to win | 1.35 | 1.41 | 70.7% |
| Draw | 5.10 | 5.34 | 18.7% |
| Luxembourg to win | 9.00 | 9.43 | 10.6% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.10 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.75. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals has much shorter odds — 1.40 compared with 2.70 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Handicap betting
Iceland (-1.5) are available at 2.00, while Luxembourg (+1.5) are 1.80. For a one-goal handicap, Iceland (-1) are quoted at 1.52 and Luxembourg (+1) at 2.45. The zero-handicap market favours Iceland much more strongly: Iceland (0) are 1.08, compared with 5.90 for Luxembourg (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.80 | |
| 1.52 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.45 | |
| 1.08 | 0 | 5.90 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — No at 1.68 has shorter odds than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.12: the market leans towards at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.12 |
| No | 1.68 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/100
|
7/50
|
12/5
|
| William Hill |
3/50
|
17/100
|
23/10
|
| LeoVegas |
7/100
|
4/25
|
43/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goals lines: Iceland — 2 goals, Luxembourg — 0.5 goals.
Iceland team goals
For Iceland, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.04, compared with 7.70 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.48 and Under 1.5 goals is 2.55; at the 2-goal line, the odds are 1.85 and 1.90 respectively. Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 2.45.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.70 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.55 | 1.5 | 1.48 |
| 1.90 | 2 | 1.85 |
| 1.50 | 2.5 | 2.45 |
Luxembourg team goals
For Luxembourg, Under 0.5 goals is 1.80 at the 0.5-goal line, while Over 0.5 goals is 1.95. Under 1 goal is available at 1.25, compared with 3.65 for Over 1 goal; at the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 1.12 and 5.00 respectively.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | 0.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 3.65 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 5.00 |
