Odds overview
Lithuania are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.11, compared with 9.50 for a draw and 27.00 for a Liechtenstein win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 looks more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.25. At the handicap line, Lithuania (-1.5) at 1.40 are favoured over Liechtenstein (+1.5) at 2.70.
Why Lithuania are favourites
The bookmakers' favourites here are clear — Lithuania. A home win is available at 1.11, a draw at 9.50 and a Liechtenstein win at 27.00.
- Lithuania have a strong head-to-head record: they have avoided defeat against Liechtenstein in four of their last five meetings, including a 2:0 away win in September.
- Liechtenstein have struggled to pick up points in the competition for some time: they have not won any of their last 10 Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Lithuania
Lithuania drew 0:0 with Suriname in a friendly on 12 November. It was Mindaugas Čepas's debut in charge of the national team.
In the Nations League, Lithuania lost 0:1 away to Azerbaijan on 4 October. On 30 September, they comfortably beat Andorra 3:0 at home.
- Lithuania have failed to win nine of their last 10 matches in all competitive competitions.
- Lithuania have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 matches in all competitive competitions.
Probable line-up: Lukas Paukštė, Vilius Armalas, Kipras Kažukolovas, Rokas Lekiatas, Modestas Vorobjovas, Gvidas Gineitis, Justas Lasickas, Adrian Lickūnas, Eligijus Jankauskas, Artūr Dolžnikov, Džiugas Bartkus.
Armandas Kučys will miss the match for Lithuania through suspension. Edgaras Utkus, Edvinas Gertmonas, Tomas Švedkauskas, Vykintas Slivka and Lukas Michelbrink are unavailable through injury.
Form and Line-up Liechtenstein
In their previous Nations League match, on 13 November, Liechtenstein narrowly lost 0:1 at home to Azerbaijan.
Earlier in October, Liechtenstein lost 0:2 at home to Gibraltar. On 1 October, however, they managed a 0:0 draw away to Azerbaijan.
- Liechtenstein have lost eight of their last 10 matches in all competitive competitions.
- Liechtenstein have scored fewer than two goals in each of their last 10 matches in all competitive competitions.
Probable line-up: Benjamin Büchel, Jens Hofer, Severin Schlegel, Emanuel Zünd, Livio Meier, Aron Sele, Alessio Hasler, Jens Hofer, Maximilian Göppel, Fabio Luque-Notaro, Alessandro Lo Russo.
Liechtenstein captain Nicolas Hasler will miss the match through injury. Defender Lars Traber will not play because of work commitments.
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Lithuania an 86.4% chance of winning, with fair odds of 1.16 against average odds of 1.11. The draw is rated at 10.1% — 9.91 against 9.50 — and a Liechtenstein win at 3.6% — 28.17 against 27.00.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania win | 1.11 | 1.16 | 86.4% |
| Draw | 9.50 | 9.91 | 10.1% |
| Liechtenstein win | 27.00 | 28.17 | 3.6% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.25. At 3.5 goals, the opposite applies: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.50, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.55.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.55 |
Handicap betting
Lithuania (-1.5) at 1.40 have considerably shorter odds than Liechtenstein (+1.5) at 2.70, so the market favours Lithuania's handicap option more strongly.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.70 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — No at 1.28 is considered much more likely than Both teams to score — Yes at 3.30: the market expects at least one team not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 3.30 |
| No | 1.28 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | — |
3/50
|
11/2
|
| William Hill |
1/50
|
2/25
|
5/1
|
| LeoVegas |
1/50
|
3/50
|
19/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Lithuania — 2.5 goals, Liechtenstein — 0.5 goals.
Lithuania team total goals
For Lithuania, Over 2 goals at 1.42 is favoured over Under 2 goals at 2.65. At the 2.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.85 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.90. At 3 goals, Under 3 goals at 1.50 has shorter odds than Over 3 goals at 2.45.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 2 | 1.42 |
| 1.85 | 2.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.50 | 3 | 2.45 |
Liechtenstein team total goals
For Liechtenstein, Under 0.5 goals at 1.30 looks considerably more likely than Over 0.5 goals at 3.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | 0.5 | 3.25 |
