Monaco will host Toulouse in the sixth round of Ligue 1. The match will take place at the Stade Louis II and kick off 10 October 2026 at 14:45 EDT / 11:45 PDT.
We will examine the bookmakers' odds and the teams' statistics to assess their relative strengths and choose a suitable bet.
Monaco know how to stifle opposing attacks at home and rarely give their opponents much freedom. The key argument for this match centres on the reliability of the hosts' defence: backing Toulouse under 1 team goal on a whole-number line provides the necessary cushion, with stakes returned if Monaco concede a single goal.
Monaco have maintained a disciplined defence this season, and their opponents have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 home matches in Ligue 1. Across five matches this season, they have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals per game, putting them joint second in the league on that measure. Above all, Monaco lead the French league outright with 13 points.
Toulouse have made a lively start to the league campaign: across five rounds, they have averaged 1.4 goals per match, and they beat Le Havre 3:2 in their last outing before the international break. However, creating a steady stream of chances away to well-organised opponents will be considerably harder for the visitors. Hence their position of just 13th in Ligue 1.
The main risk is that Toulouse can turn even rare chances into goals, while a sample of five rounds is still too small. However, the whole-number line of one goal provides protection against an isolated scoring moment: a single goal from the visitors will not result in a losing bet.
The hosts' defence is reliable enough to withstand their opponents' pressure and prevent them from scoring twice. Toulouse have also scored 3.60 fewer goals than their expected goals (xG) figure suggests. That supports the prediction of Toulouse under 1 team goal.
Rudy Buquet (France)
Matches – 20 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 3;
Matches with red cards – 3 out of 20;
Matches with penalties – 4 out of 20.
Monaco
Lens
Strasbourg
Monaco
PSG
Monaco
Monaco
Marseille
Le Havre
Monaco
Toulouse
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Toulouse
Lille
Brest
Toulouse
Toulouse
Lyon
Ligue 1 2025/26
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2024-2025
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2023-2024
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2022-2023
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2019-2020
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2018-2019
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2017-2018
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2016-2017
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2015-2016
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2014-2015
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2013-2014
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2010-2011
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2009-2010
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2008-2009
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2007-2008
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Ligue 1 2006-2007
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2005-2006
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
Toulouse
Ligue 1 2004-2005
Monaco
Toulouse
Toulouse
Monaco
Monaco
| # | Team | Form | Matches played | W | D | L | G | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
Monaco
|
|
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8:3 | 13 |
|
2
|
Lyon
|
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10:2 | 11 |
|
3
|
FC Paris
|
|
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8:3 | 11 |
|
4
|
Lille
|
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
|
5
|
Rennes
|
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:9 | 10 |
|
6
|
PSG
|
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:7 | 8 |
|
7
|
Angers
|
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 7 |
|
8
|
Strasbourg
|
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:10 | 7 |
|
9
|
Le Mans
|
|
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9:9 | 6 |
|
10
|
Auxerre
|
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:12 | 6 |
|
11
|
Brest
|
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:8 | 5 |
|
12
|
Lorient
|
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5:6 | 5 |
|
13
|
Toulouse
|
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 5 |
|
14
|
Nice
|
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | 5 |
|
15
|
Lens
|
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9:9 | 4 |
|
16
|
Troyes
|
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:11 | 4 |
|
17
|
Marseille
|
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7:8 | 3 |
|
18
|
Le Havre
|
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4:7 | 2 |
| # | Team | Form | Matches played | W | D | L | G | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
Lyon
|
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:2 | 7 |
|
2
|
FC Paris
|
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:1 | 7 |
|
3
|
Rennes
|
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:4 | 7 |
|
4
|
Monaco
|
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
|
5
|
Auxerre
|
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 6 |
|
6
|
Le Mans
|
|
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 5 |
|
7
|
Nice
|
|
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:2 | 5 |
|
8
|
Lille
|
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 4 |
|
9
|
Strasbourg
|
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 4 |
|
10
|
Angers
|
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | 3 |
|
11
|
Toulouse
|
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | 3 |
|
12
|
Lens
|
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 3 |
|
13
|
Marseille
|
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:5 | 3 |
|
14
|
Brest
|
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
|
15
|
Lorient
|
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
|
16
|
Troyes
|
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
|
17
|
Le Havre
|
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:3 | 1 |
|
18
|
PSG
|
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| # | Team | Form | Matches played | W | D | L | G | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
PSG
|
|
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
|
2
|
Monaco
|
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 7 |
|
3
|
Lille
|
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 6 |
|
4
|
Lyon
|
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:0 | 4 |
|
5
|
FC Paris
|
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 4 |
|
6
|
Angers
|
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 4 |
|
7
|
Brest
|
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
|
8
|
Lorient
|
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
|
9
|
Rennes
|
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:5 | 3 |
|
10
|
Strasbourg
|
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:8 | 3 |
|
11
|
Troyes
|
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | 3 |
|
12
|
Toulouse
|
|
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:4 | 2 |
|
13
|
Le Mans
|
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
|
14
|
Lens
|
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:6 | 1 |
|
15
|
Le Havre
|
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
|
16
|
Auxerre
|
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | 0 |
|
17
|
Nice
|
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | 0 |
|
18
|
Marseille
|
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:3 | 0 |
| Bookie | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
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