There is no real question about whether New Zealand will beat Wales — the vast majority of bookmakers do not even offer odds on an away win.
Wales
The explanation is simple — Wales have only just managed to return to the world's top 10. They even have a positive record over their last five competitive matches — three wins and two defeats. Of the three teams they beat, only Fiji are ranked slightly higher, and even Fiji's 'home' match was played in Cardiff (39:24). Wales are now struggling to beat Japan, who are ranked between 11th and 20th in the world — they won 28:21 in the previous round of the Nations Championship.
New Zealand
New Zealand have yet to lose to a northern hemisphere team in this tournament, despite already facing European heavyweights France (34:32) and Ireland (40:21). Those were home matches, admittedly, but last weekend the All Blacks travelled to Murrayfield in Edinburgh and comfortably beat Scotland (43:21), producing a notably stronger second-half performance (19:0).
Wales vs New Zealand Prediction
The All Blacks will show Wales no mercy. Their last meeting in Cardiff last November ended in a 26:52 defeat for Wales against the three-time world champions. That 26-point margin is the closest Wales have come in their three meetings with New Zealand this decade. We will take a moderate handicap of fewer than 30 points on the visitors — New Zealand -27.5 points.
