Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Parma are slight favourites: a home win is priced at 2.55, compared with 3.05 for a draw and 3.10 for an away win. In the main 2.5 goals market, Under is clearly preferred to Over — 1.57 versus 2.40. At a handicap of 0, Parma Draw No Bet is priced at 1.75, while Cagliari Draw No Bet is 2.10.
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers give the home side a modest edge: a Parma win is priced at 2.55, a positive result for Cagliari at 3.10, and a draw at 3.05.
• The hosts' limited attacking ceiling restricts their advantage: Parma scored no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
• The visitors' restrained output away from home prevents them from gaining a clear edge: no more than three goals were scored in 8 of Cagliari's last 10 away Serie A matches.
Form and Line-up Parma
Parma began their competitive season with a home win over Catania in the Coppa Italia. The key figures were Simone Lontani, who scored twice, and new signing El Bilal Toure, who started and provided an assist.
Over a longer period, however, Parma's matches have remained cautious: they scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 matches in all competitions, while the two sides combined for no more than nine shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Serie A fixtures.
Key numbers:
No more than 2 goals were scored in 8 of Parma's last 10 Serie A matches
Parma were caught offside no more often than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches
No more than 4 yellow cards were shown in 10 of Parma's last 10 away Serie A matches
Probable Parma line-up (5-4-1): Edoardo Corvi — Sascha Britschgi — Mariano Troilo — Enrico Delprato — Emanuele Valeri — Abdoulaye Ndiaye — Abdou-Salam Konate — Simone Lontani — Adrian Bernabe — Christian Ordonez — El Bilal Toure
Form and Line-up Cagliari
Cagliari also opened the season with a successful cup match, beating Arezzo. Alessandro Deiola scored the only and winning goal from the penalty spot, sending the Sardinians through to the next round.
Away from home, the Sardinians tend towards cautious football without frequent stoppages or wide set pieces: in 9 of their last 10 away Serie A matches, Cagliari took no more than 5 corners, while the total number of offsides in the match did not exceed three.
Key numbers:
Cagliari finished with Under 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions
Cagliari's opponents received no more than 2 yellow cards in 10 of their last 10 away Serie A matches
Cagliari committed no more than 12 fouls in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions
Probable Cagliari line-up (4-3-3): Elia Caprile — Juan Rodriguez — Alessandro Deiola — Adam Obert — Ze Pedro — Harry Winks — Alessandro Romano — Daniel Maldini — Paul Mendy — Jacopo Fazzini — Michel Adopo
Absentees: Yael Trepy, Sebastiano Esposito (all injured).
Team chances
A home win is priced at 2.55; the no-margin estimate is 2.66 and 37.6%. A draw is available at 3.05, with a no-margin estimate of 3.18 and a probability of 31.4%; an away win is priced at 3.10, 3.23 and 30.9% respectively.
OUTCOME | AVERAGE ODDS | AVERAGE NO-MARGIN ODDS | NO-MARGIN PROBABILITY |
Parma to win | 2.55 | 2.66 | 37.6% |
Draw | 3.05 | 3.18 | 31.4% |
Cagliari to win | 3.10 | 3.23 | 30.9% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.57, compared with 2.40 for Over 2.5 goals. On the 2-goal line, Under is 1.95 and Over is 1.80. For 3.5, the odds are 1.15 for Under and 4.40 for Over.
LINE | UNDER | OVER |
2.5 | 1.57 | 2.40 |
2 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
3.5 | 1.15 | 4.40 |
Handicap prediction
Parma (-1.5) is priced at 5.20, Cagliari (-1.5) at 6.60. At a 1.5 handicap, the prices are close: 1.06 for Parma (+1.5) and 1.11 for Cagliari (+1.5). Parma (-1) is priced at 4.20, compared with 5.60 for Cagliari (-1), while Parma (+1) is 1.09 versus 1.17 for Cagliari (+1). At a handicap of 0, Parma Draw No Bet at 1.75 is preferred to Cagliari Draw No Bet at 2.10.
HOME | HANDICAP | AWAY |
5.20 | -1.5 | 6.60 |
1.06 | 1.5 | 1.11 |
4.20 | -1 | 5.60 |
1.09 | 1 | 1.17 |
1.75 | 0 | 2.10 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No is priced shorter — 1.80 compared with 1.97 for Both teams to score - Yes — meaning the market is slightly more likely to expect at least one team not to score.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE | ODDS |
Yes | 1.97 |
No | 1.80 |
Double chance prediction
1X and 12 are both available at 1.40, while X2 is priced at 1.55.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.40 | 1.40 | 1.55 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Parma — 1 goal, Cagliari — 1 goal.
Parma team total
Parma: Under 0.5 is priced at 2.85 and Over 0.5 at 1.37. On the 1-goal line, the odds are almost even: 1.90 for Under and 1.85 for Over. Under 1.5 is priced at 1.40, compared with 2.75 for Over 1.5.
UNDER | TEAM TOTAL | OVER |
2.85 | 0.5 | 1.37 |
1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
1.40 | 1.5 | 2.75 |
Cagliari team total
Cagliari: Under 0.5 is available at 2.60 and Over 0.5 at 1.47. On the 1-goal line, Under is 1.70 compared with 2.10 for Over. Under 1.5 is priced at 1.30, while Over 1.5 is 3.25.
UNDER | TEAM TOTAL | OVER |
2.60 | 0.5 | 1.47 |
1.70 | 1 | 2.10 |
1.30 | 1.5 | 3.25 |
