Odds overview
Spain are clear favourites at 1.69 to win, while the draw is available at 4.10 and England to win at 4.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.24. For the handicaps, England (-1) at 1.67 is favoured over Spain (-1) at 2.10.
Why Spain are favourites
Spain are the bookmakers' favourites: the hosts are 1.69 to win, the draw is 4.10 and an England win is 4.70.
- Spain remain on a long unbeaten run: they have not lost any of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- England have already lost a head-to-head meeting: Spain beat them 3:2 on 26 September 2026.
Form and Line-up Spain
Spain beat Czechia 2:0 away on 12 November 2026. Before that, in October, they also defeated Croatia (2:1).
After the match against Czechia, head coach Luis de la Fuente said Martín Zubimendi was tired because of lapses in control. But the coach is confident the midfielder can play in the next match if needed.
- Spain have scored at least two goals in each of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Spain have not been outshot by their opponents in any of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón, Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella, Martín Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz, Yeremy Pino, Fermín López, Álex Baena, Ferran Torres
Form and Line-up England
England beat Croatia 2:1 at home on 12 November 2026. Before that, in October, they defeated Czechia (3:0) and thrashed Croatia away (7:0).
Harry Kane already has 7 goals and one assist in five matches in this UEFA Nations League campaign. Jude Bellingham has scored once and provided five assists in five appearances.
- England have won 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- In 9 of England's last 10 matches across all official competitions, both teams had more than 5.5 shots on target.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Jarell Quansah, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Elliot Anderson, Declan Rice, Morgan Rogers, Jude Bellingham, Anthony Gordon, Harry Kane
The teams' chances
Spain to win is available at 1.69; the fair odds are 1.77, implying a 56.4% probability. The draw is 4.10, with fair odds of 4.30 and a 23.3% probability, while England to win is 4.70, with fair odds of 4.93 and a 20.3% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain to win | 1.69 | 1.77 | 56.4% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.30 | 23.3% |
| England to win | 4.70 | 4.93 | 20.3% |
Total goals betting
At a line of 2.5 goals, Over 2.5 at 1.59 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.24. For a total of 2 goals, Over 2 is 1.25 against 3.50 for Under 2, while at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 at 1.50 is considered more likely than Over 3.5 at 2.43.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.24 | 1.59 |
| 2 | 3.50 | 1.25 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.43 |
Handicap betting
England (-1) are available at 1.67 and are favoured over Spain (-1) at 2.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | -1 | 1.67 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
11/50
|
11/10
|
| William Hill |
1/5
|
1/4
|
11/10
|
| LeoVegas |
11/50
|
1/4
|
49/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team-goal lines for this match: Spain — 1.5 goals; England — 0.5 goals.
Spain team goals
For Spain, Over 0.5 goals is 1.11 compared with 5.20 for Under 0.5. At a line of 1.5 goals, Over 1.5 is 1.61 and Under 1.5 is 2.20, while at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 at 1.38 is considerably shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.81.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.20 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 2.20 | 1.5 | 1.61 |
| 1.38 | 2.5 | 2.81 |
England team goals
For England, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.41, while Under 0.5 is 2.70. At a line of 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.36 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.89; the gap is wider still at 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 is 1.07 and Over 2.5 is 6.20.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 0.5 | 1.41 |
| 1.36 | 1.5 | 2.89 |
| 1.07 | 2.5 | 6.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Clément Turpin (England)
Matches — 13 (international fixtures, 2026);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.9;
Matches with a red card — 3 out of 13;
Matches with a penalty — 5 out of 13.
