Odds Overview
Bournemouth hold a slight edge in the 1X2 market: Bournemouth to win — 2.45, Real Sociedad to win — 2.80, draw — 3.60. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.75 compared with 2.10 for Under 2.5 goals, indicating an expectation of at least three goals. In the main handicap market, Bournemouth Draw No Bet at 1.80 is shorter than Real Sociedad Draw No Bet at 2.00.
Why Bournemouth Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers' odds give the visitors a slight edge: Bournemouth to win is available at 2.45 (a 39.1% no-margin probability), Real Sociedad to win at 2.80 (34.2%), and the draw at 3.60 (26.6%).
• Bournemouth regularly outshoot their opponents in chances created: they have had more total shots, including blocked efforts, in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Bournemouth's opponents are regularly restricted down the flanks: they have taken no more than five corners in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Form and Line-up Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad beat Elche 3:2 on 7 September. However, in their next match against Atletico Madrid, they failed to hold on to a draw after conceding three times after the 84th minute.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in the first half in each of Real Sociedad's last 10 matches in all competitions
- Both teams to score - Yes has landed in 7 of Real Sociedad's last 10 matches in all competitions
Probable Real Sociedad line-up (4-4-2): Alex Remiro, Sergio Gomez, Jon Pacheco, Mamadou Sarr, Hector Fort, Goncalo Guedes, Carlos Soler, Yangel Herrera, Job Ochieng, Mikel Oyarzabal, Luka Sucic
Absentees: Alvaro Odriozola, Igor Zubeldia (injured), Jon Aramburu (suspended)
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
Ahead of their trip to Spain, Bournemouth drew 2:2 with Newcastle on 5 September and 2:2 with Brentford on 12 September in the Premier League. Meanwhile, all of the team's last 10 matches in all competitions have finished with fewer than 4.5 goals.
- No more than 10 corners have been taken in 8 of Bournemouth's last 10 matches in all competitions
- Teams have committed at least 19 fouls in 9 of Bournemouth's last 10 matches in all competitions
- At least four yellow cards have been shown in 9 of Bournemouth's last 10 matches in all competitions
Probable Bournemouth line-up (4-2-3-1): Michele Di Gregorio, Adrien Truffert, Antonio Silva, James Hill, Adam Smith, Alex Scott, Lewis Cook, Marcus Tavernier, Justin Kluivert, Rayan, Evanilson
Absentees: Amine Adli, Eli Kroupi, Veljko Milosavljevic (injured)
Team Chances
On a no-margin assessment, Bournemouth remain slight favourites: Bournemouth to win has a 39.1% probability and fair odds of 2.56, compared with an average of 2.45. Real Sociedad to win is listed at 34.2%, 2.92 and 2.80 respectively, while the draw is at 26.6%, 3.76 and 3.60.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to win | 2.80 | 2.92 | 34.2% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.76 | 26.6% |
| Bournemouth to win | 2.45 | 2.56 | 39.1% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. At the 3.5-goal line, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.42 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Handicap Prediction
A big win for either side is considered less likely: Bournemouth (-1.5) — 4.30, Real Sociedad (-1.5) — 4.80. At the +1.5 handicap, Bournemouth (+1.5) is shorter at 1.13 compared with 1.16 for Real Sociedad (+1.5). For the -1 handicap, the odds are 4.10 for Real Sociedad (-1) and 3.65 for Bournemouth (-1), while at the +1 line they are 1.25 and 1.18 respectively. In the Draw No Bet market, Bournemouth at 1.80 is shorter than Real Sociedad at 2.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.80 | -1.5 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| 4.10 | -1 | 3.65 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.18 |
| 2.00 | 0 | 1.80 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.60 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.25, which requires at least one team not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
73/100
|
29/100
|
3/10
|
| William Hill |
57/100
|
3/10
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
7/10
|
3/10
|
33/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Goals Prediction
The team-total lines indicate a higher expected scoring output for Bournemouth at the higher thresholds.
Real Sociedad Team Total
Real Sociedad team total: at the 0.5-goal line, Over 0.5 goals at 1.27 is significantly shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.45. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is available at 1.57 compared with 2.35 for Under 1, while at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.57 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.45 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.35 | 1 | 1.57 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Bournemouth Team Total
Bournemouth team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.22 is significantly shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.80. At the 1-goal line, the odds are 2.65 for Under 1 and 1.45 for Over 1; at the 1.5-goal line, they are 1.67 for Under 1.5 and 2.15 for Over 1.5. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.27 is preferred, while Over 2 is offered at 3.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
| 2.65 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 1.67 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.27 | 2 | 3.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Pawel Raczkowski (Poland)
Matches — 9 (international matches, 2024/25–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.7;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 9;
Matches with penalties — 4 of 9.
