Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Australian Open match.
The third round of the Australian Open presents Aryna Sabalenka with tougher competition. The Belarusian, currently the world's top-ranked player, aims to continue her dominance on hard courts. Sabalenka has clinched this tournament twice consecutively and has arrived in Melbourne seeking a third title. Her opponent, Clara Tauson, is also unbeaten this season. The young Dane is in excellent form, having won a title earlier this year and is clearly poised for an upset.
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka commenced the tournament confidently; however, she faced unexpected challenges against Bouzas Maneiro (6:3, 7:5), committing 26 unforced errors against 25 winners. She allowed her opponent to earn 11 break points, with the Spaniard converting only three. Sabalenka is renowned for her powerful play, especially on hard courts, where she has triumphed in 27 of her last 28 matches. However, she often chooses not to overpower her opponents outright, conserving energy for later stages of the tournament—in 10 of her previous 14 matches on this surface, Aryna has not surpassed a handicap of -5.5 in games.
Clara Tauson
Tauson has delivered impressive tennis at the start of the tournament. After a tense three-setter with Linda Nosková (5:7, 6:3, 6:4), the Dane confidently defeated the experienced Tatjana Maria (6:2, 6:2). In that match, Tauson dominated—winning 68% of her service points and 56% on return. Clara demonstrated an aggressive style, with a 71% success rate at the net. Notably, the Dane has won at least one set in 21 consecutive matches on hard courts. In encounters against top-10 players, she has maintained a games handicap (+5.5) in her last six matches.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Clara Tauson Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka remains the favourite, but her performance is not yet ideal. Clara Tauson possesses the necessary qualities to challenge the Belarusian: powerful serve, stability in rallies, and the ability to maintain a high tempo. The young Dane will put up a fight, winning a set or keeping the game difference minimal. Therefore, we'll back Tauson with a positive handicap.
