Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
Under Niko Kovač, Borussia Dortmund have made significant defensive improvements, giving fans hope for a strong finish to the season. The German side enter their Champions League Round of 16 tie against Lille as favourites. While the French side impressed during the group stage, they still have notable defensive vulnerabilities.
Borussia Dortmund
Since Edin Terzić’s departure, Borussia Dortmund have lost just twice in nine matches, and since 11 February, they have conceded only two goals in five outings – keeping four clean sheets in the process. Their recent Bundesliga form is particularly impressive, having demolished Union Berlin (6:0) and secured a comfortable away win at St. Pauli (2:0). Striker Serhou Guirassy has netted five goals in those two matches, while Borussia Dortmund generated a total of 6.39 xG. In the previous Champions League round, Sporting Lisbon managed just 1.04 xG across two legs against them.
Lille
Not having to play a knockout round playoff in the Champions League may have worked against Lille. After finishing the group stage, they suffered an embarrassing Coupe de France elimination to Ligue 2’s Dunkerque (1:2 on penalties) and were comprehensively beaten by Paris Saint-Germain on Saturday (1:4, conceding 3.59 xGA). While the coaching staff rested some key players ahead of the trip to Germany, Lille will be without Edon Zhegrova due to injury – a major blow, as the winger has been one of their most creative attacking outlets.
Borussia Dortmund vs Lille Prediction
Borussia Dortmund are expected to seize control of the tie on home soil. Lille have shown defensive weaknesses, and with Serhou Guirassy and Karim Adeyemi in fine form, the German side should take full advantage.
