The Minnesota Vikings have forgotten how to score, and the whole league can see it. Since their opening 39:22 against the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings have played seven games, none of which produced more than 39 combined points. The 42.5 line is being propped up solely by the Packers' performance last weekend. We are backing the under.
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have just put 45 points past the New England Patriots, with Jordan Love throwing for 372 yards. That is an eye-catching total, but look at where it came from: four opposition turnovers and more than 20 points directly off them. Gifts. In October, the Packers scored 17 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 17 against the Detroit Lions. Their season average is 24 per game, not 45.
We have to admit that the hosts' totals trend is mixed: five of their nine games have finished under 42.5 points. There is an injury concern, though. Josh Jacobs broke a finger on his right hand, was unable to finish the game in Foxborough and is likely to miss the game on 15 November 2026. Running the ball is harder without him.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings' defence is allowing 14.5 points per game. Across eight games, opponents have scored more than 19 against them only twice: the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 and the Buffalo Bills on Monday. Their offence, however, is struggling badly. Their last three games have yielded 16, 15 and 6 points. Against the Bills, Carson Wentz completed eight of 25 passes for 81 yards and committed three turnovers, while the opposition held the ball for more than 42 minutes.
Kyler Murray is recovering from a hip injury. On Tuesday, the club rushed through a trade for Kirk Cousins, who is likely to start. That is the main risk to this bet: Cousins threw 20 touchdown passes in nine games for the Las Vegas Raiders and knows Kevin O'Connell's system. But he has less than a week to prepare, and his first assignment is at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction
The bet loses at 43 points, with no possibility of a push. A score such as 27:17 would be enough to beat the line. The Green Bay Packers should get their 20–24 points: they have scored at least 22 in their last five meetings with the Minnesota Vikings in which the starters played. The question is what the visitors can contribute. The Vikings have not scored 20 points since 11 October.
We remember the 61 points in the first meeting. The Minnesota Vikings scored 29 unanswered points off Green Bay Packers turnovers — that is not something they can repeat at will. What is more, some bookmakers have already lowered the total to 40–41.5, so 42.5 is the top of the market. At 24:17 or 23:16, our bet wins.
