Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the La Liga match.
The biggest fixture of the weekend takes place in Madrid, where Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid go head-to-head in a high-stakes derby that could prove decisive in the title race.
Real Madrid
A shock defeat to Espanyol (0:1) ended Real Madrid’s five-match winning streak, tightening the battle at the top of La Liga. To make matters worse, Antonio Rüdiger sustained an injury in that match, forcing Carlo Ancelotti to reshuffle his defence for both this derby and the upcoming Champions League clash against Manchester City. Since the start of 2025, they have recorded 13.08 xG—the only team in La Liga to surpass 10+ xG during this period.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid have been in impressive form, scoring 14 goals in their last five matches across all competitions. Their most dominant display came in the Copa del Rey, where they swept aside Getafe (5:0), producing 2.86 xG in the process. On the road, Atlético Madrid have won 10 of their last 11 away fixtures and they have performed well in Madrid derbies, having not lost in regular time since September 2022.
Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Prediction
Real Madrid’s defensive fragility was exposed in their Copa del Rey win over Leganes (3:2) , while Atlético Madrid showed their resilience in the first league meeting this season when Ángel Correa salvaged a 1:1 draw late on. With both attacks in form, another high-tempo encounter is expected.
