Odds overview
Al Nassr are clear favourites: Al Nassr to win is priced at 1.25, while the draw is rated at 5.80 and Al Riyadh to win at 9.50. In the main total, over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is noticeably preferred to under 2.5 goals at 3.00. On the handicap, Al Nassr (-1.5) at 1.65 is priced lower than Al Riyadh (+1.5) at 2.10, which points to expectations of a convincing away win.
Why Al Nassr are favourites for the match
A home win for Al Riyadh is priced at 9.50, the draw at 5.80, while an away win for Al Nassr is available at 1.25.
• New head coach Ange Postecoglou took charge of Al Nassr before the 2026/27 season, while Joao Felix has taken on the role of attacking leader, scoring twice and providing an assist in the cup game against Al Diriyah on 18 August.
• Al Riyadh began the league campaign by conceding four goals, leaving them top for goals conceded in the league's pre-match snapshot.
Form and Line-up Al Riyadh
In the King's Cup, Al Riyadh beat Al Zulfi 2:0 thanks to a brace from Leandro Antunes. At home, the team also press aggressively: Al Riyadh have received at least two yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 Saudi Pro League home matches.
Key numbers:
In 9 of the last 10 Saudi Pro League matches involving Al Riyadh, the teams had at least 9 shots on target.
In 9 of Al Riyadh's last 10 away matches in the Saudi Pro League, their opponents took at least 5 corners.
In 9 of their last 10 away games in the Saudi Pro League, Al Riyadh committed no more than 12 fouls.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Milan Borjan — Rodrigo Abascal — Mohammed Al-Khaibari — Sulaiman Hazazi — Sultan Al-Issa — Bernard Mensah — Fahad Al-Jizani — Faisal Al-Sobhi — Teddy Okou — Mahmoud Hassan Trezeguet — Leandro Antunes
Form and Line-up Al Nassr
Al Nassr's defence have yet to concede in the Saudi Pro League, sitting last for goals conceded in the pre-match snapshot. The team's away matches themselves are restrained in disciplinary terms: in all of their last 10 away league games, referees showed no more than four yellow cards in total.
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 Saudi Pro League matches, Al Nassr took at least 5 corners.
In all of Al Nassr's last 10 Saudi Pro League matches, their opponents were caught offside at least 2 times.
In 9 of their last 10 Saudi Pro League away matches, Al Nassr received no more than 2 yellow cards.
Probable line-up (4-4-1-1): Bento — Nawaf Boushal — Mohamed Simakan — Abdulelah Al-Amri — Salem Al-Najdi — Kingsley Coman — Angelo Gabriel — Samu Costa — Sadio Mane — Joao Felix — Abdullah Al Hamddan
Teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Al Nassr a 74.2% chance of winning: the average odds for Al Nassr to win are 1.25, with a margin-free estimate of 1.35. For Al Riyadh to win, the figures are 9.50 and 10.24 with a probability of 9.8%; for the draw, 5.80 and 6.25 with 16.0%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | Probability without margin |
Al Riyadh to win | 9.50 | 10.24 | 9.8% |
Draw | 5.80 | 6.25 | 16.0% |
Al Nassr to win | 1.25 | 1.35 | 74.2% |
Total goals prediction
On the 2.5 line, over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is priced significantly lower than under 2.5 goals at 3.00. On the 3.5 line, the prices are almost level: over 3.5 goals is 1.82, under 3.5 goals is 1.88.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 3.00 | 1.35 |
3.5 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
Handicap prediction
Al Nassr (-1.5) is available at 1.65, while Al Riyadh (+1.5) is 2.10. On the 1 line, Al Nassr (-1) is priced at 1.35 against 2.95 for Al Riyadh (+1). With a handicap of 0, Al Nassr (0) at 1.06 is noticeably lower than Al Riyadh (0) at 6.60.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
— | -1.5 | 1.65 |
2.10 | 1.5 | — |
— | -1 | 1.35 |
2.95 | 1 | — |
6.60 | 0 | 1.06 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.70 is priced lower than Both teams to score - No at 2.02: the market rates an exchange of goals slightly higher than a scenario in which at least one team fail to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.70 |
No | 2.02 |
Double chance prediction
X2 at 1.02 is the most likely double chance; 12 is rated at 1.10 and 1X at 3.55. The prices reflect a low assessment of a scenario in which Al Nassr do not win.
1X | 12 | X2 |
3.55 | 1.10 | 1.02 |
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Al Riyadh — 0.5 goals, Al Nassr — 2.5 goals.
Al Riyadh team total
Al Riyadh: on the 0.5 line, over 0.5 goals at 1.63 is priced lower than under 0.5 goals at 2.15. On the 1 line, under 1 goal at 1.40 is preferred to over 1 goal at 2.75, while on 1.5 the gap is even greater: under 1.5 goals is 1.20, over 1.5 goals is 4.10.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.15 | 0.5 | 1.63 |
1.40 | 1 | 2.75 |
1.20 | 1.5 | 4.10 |
Al Nassr team total
Al Nassr: over 2 goals at 1.38 is noticeably lower than under 2 goals at 2.80. On the 2.5 line, over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.72 against 2.00 for under 2.5 goals, while on the 3 line under 3 goals at 1.60 is priced lower than over 3 goals at 2.20.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.80 | 2 | 1.38 |
2.00 | 2.5 | 1.72 |
1.60 | 3 | 2.20 |
