Odds overview
Arsenal are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.70, while the draw is 3.75 and an away win is 5.20. In the total-goals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is rated more highly than Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. Arsenal Draw No Bet at 1.25 is considerably more favoured than Chelsea Draw No Bet at 3.55.
Why Arsenal are favourites for the match
Bookmakers favour Arsenal: a home win is available at 1.70, the draw is rated at 3.75 and a Chelsea win at 5.20.
- At home, Arsenal maintain a high level of control: in each of their last 10 Premier League home matches, opponents have managed no more than three shots on target, while in 8 of those 10 they have scored no more than once.
- Chelsea rarely score heavily away from home: they have scored fewer than two goals in four of their last five league away matches, while in 26 of 29 head-to-head meetings Arsenal have restricted the Blues to six shots on target.
Form and Line-up Arsenal
Arsenal have started their Premier League campaign with two clean-sheet wins: they thrashed Coventry City 3:0 at home before beating Aston Villa 1:0 away thanks to a Bukayo Saka goal assisted by Riccardo Calafiori. Under Mikel Arteta, the team have been collecting points confidently from the opening rounds and are regarded as the leading contenders for the title.
At home, the Gunners have the edge over opponents in terms of pressing quality: in each of their last 10 Premier League home matches, Arsenal have either had more shots on target than their opponents or matched them, while opponents have not had more than 13 shots per game.
Key numbers:
- Arsenal's opponents have taken no more than four corners in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Arsenal's opponents have been caught offside no more than once in each of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Arsenal have received no more than two yellow cards in each of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Arsenal line-up (4-2-3-1): David Raya — Ben White, Gabriel Magalhaes, Ezri Konsa, Riccardo Calafiori — Myles Lewis-Skelly, Declan Rice — Christos Tzolis, Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka — Kai Havertz
Absentees: Jurrien Timber, William Saliba (injuries), Cristhian Mosquera (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Chelsea
Chelsea have started the Premier League season with two wins: first they beat Fulham 3:2 away, then defeated Brighton 4:3 at home after leading 3:1 at half-time.
In away matches, Chelsea's opponents regularly find attacking space: in 8 of their last 10 matches on the road, they have had at least four shots on target, while the Blues' opponents have been caught offside no more than twice per match.
Key numbers:
- Chelsea have received at least two yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- There have been no more than 11 corners in 8 of Chelsea's last 10 Premier League matches.
- Away from home, Chelsea and their opponents have been caught offside no more than four times in each of their last 10 Premier League matches.
Probable Chelsea line-up (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martinez — Wesley Fofana, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill — Cole Palmer — Pedro Neto, Romeo Lavia, Malo Gusto, Jorrel Hato — Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers — Joao Pedro
Absentees: Jordan Henderson, Marco Palestra (doubtful)
Team chances
A home win is available at 1.70; the fair odds are 1.77, implying a 56.6% probability. The draw is 3.80, with fair odds of 3.95 and a 25.3% probability, while an away win is 5.30, with fair odds of 5.51 and an 18.1% probability.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Arsenal to win | 1.70 | 1.77 | 56.6% |
Draw | 3.80 | 3.95 | 25.3% |
Chelsea to win | 5.30 | 5.51 | 18.1% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals is 2.05 and Over 2.5 goals is 1.75, so the market slightly expects a high-scoring match. At the 3.5 mark, Under 3.5 goals at 1.40 is considerably more likely than Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.05 | 1.75 |
3.5 | 1.40 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Arsenal (-1.5) is available at 2.70, while Chelsea (+1.5) is 1.40. On the one-goal line, Arsenal (-1) is 2.20 and Chelsea (+1) is 1.68. With the zero handicap, Arsenal Draw No Bet is 1.25 against 3.60 for Chelsea Draw No Bet.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.70 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.40 |
2.20 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 1.68 |
1.25 | 0 | 3.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.70 and looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.08; the latter means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.70 |
No | 2.08 |
Double chance prediction
The most likely double-chance outcome is 1X at 1.18. The 12 bet is 1.30, while X2 at 2.20 is rated considerably lower.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.18 | 1.30 | 2.20 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Arsenal — 1.5 goals, Chelsea — 1 goal.
Arsenal team total
Arsenal team total: Under 0.5 goals is 5.60 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.09; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is available at 3.95 and Over 1 goal at 1.20. At the 1.5 mark, the odds are 2.10 for Under 1.5 goals and 1.70 for Over 1.5 goals, while at the 2-goal line they are 1.55 for Under 2 goals and 2.35 for Over 2 goals.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.60 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
3.95 | 1 | 1.20 |
2.10 | 1.5 | 1.70 |
1.55 | 2 | 2.35 |
Chelsea team total
Chelsea team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.45 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.50. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 1.63, while Over 1 goal is 2.20; at the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals is 1.28 and Over 1.5 goals is 3.30.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.45 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
1.63 | 1 | 2.20 |
1.28 | 1.5 | 3.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Chris Kavanagh (England)
Matches — 31 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.1;
Matches with red cards — 4 of 31;
Matches with penalties — 5 of 31.
