Odds overview
Atlético Madrid are favourites: a home win is available at around 1.96, while the draw and a Manchester United win are offered at 3.90 and 3.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.48 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.49. For the handicap (0) market, Atlético Madrid at 1.47 are favoured over Manchester United at 2.51.
Why Atlético Madrid are match favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: an Atlético Madrid win is offered at odds of 1.96, compared with 3.50 for Manchester United and 3.90 for a draw.
- Atlético Madrid regularly threaten the opposition goal at home: they have taken at least 13 shots in 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
- Manchester United have gone four matches without a win.
Form and Line-up Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid have been disciplined in recent matches: they received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in each of their last 10 home UEFA Champions League games, while 9 of those 10 matches had under 23.5 fouls.
- There were fewer than 3.5 offsides in 9 of Atlético Madrid's last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
- Atlético Madrid had more than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 8 of Atlético Madrid's last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
Probable line-up: Jan Oblak, Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, David Hancko, Álex Grimaldo, Marcos Llorente, Morten Hjulmand, Álex Baena, Giuliano Simeone, Julián Alvarez, Jonathan David.
Form and Line-up Manchester United
Manchester United have not won since the start of September: their recent matches have brought two draws and two defeats.
- Manchester United have not won an away match in the 2026/27 season: they have drawn twice and lost to Hull City (0:2).
- Manchester United have not won away in the UEFA Champions League since November 2021.
- Manchester United have conceded in seven of their eight matches this season.
Probable line-up: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw, Youri Tielemans, Kobbie Mainoo, Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Matheus Cunha.
The teams' chances
An Atlético Madrid win is offered at 1.96, with fair odds of 2.06 and a 48.5% probability. The corresponding figures are 3.90, 4.10 and 24.4% for the draw, and 3.50, 3.68 and 27.2% for a Manchester United win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid win | 1.96 | 2.06 | 48.5% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.10 | 24.4% |
| Manchester United win | 3.50 | 3.68 | 27.2% |
Total goals prediction
For the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.49 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.48. For the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is available at 4.05 and Over 2 goals at 1.19. For the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is offered at 1.63 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.17.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.49 | 1.48 |
| 2 | 4.05 | 1.19 |
| 3.5 | 1.63 | 2.17 |
Handicap prediction
Atlético Madrid with a handicap of 0 are offered at shorter odds of 1.47 than Manchester United with a handicap of 0 at 2.51, indicating an advantage for the hosts in this market.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | 0 | 2.51 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/4
|
1/4
|
91/100
|
| William Hill |
3/10
|
1/4
|
4/5
|
| 888sport |
9/25
|
1/4
|
67/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Atlético Madrid — 1.5 goals; Manchester United — 1.5 goals.
Atlético Madrid team goals
Atlético Madrid team goals: Under 0.5 — 5.00, Over 0.5 — 1.12; Under 1 — 2.40, Over 1 — 1.52; Under 1.5 — 2.12, Over 1.5 — 1.66; Under 2 — 1.52, Over 2 — 2.40.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.52 |
| 2.12 | 1.5 | 1.66 |
| 1.52 | 2 | 2.40 |
Manchester United team goals
Manchester United team goals: Under 0.5 — 3.45, Over 0.5 — 1.26; Under 1.5 — 1.58, Over 1.5 — 2.26; Under 2 — 1.24, Over 2 — 3.75.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.45 | 0.5 | 1.26 |
| 1.58 | 1.5 | 2.26 |
| 1.24 | 2 | 3.75 |
