Odds overview
Atlético Madrid are favourites: a home win is available at around 1.96, while the draw and a Manchester United win are 3.90 and 3.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.48 is considered much more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.49. Atlético Madrid Draw No Bet (0) at 1.47 is favoured over Manchester United Draw No Bet (0) at 2.51.
Why Atlético Madrid are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: an Atlético Madrid win is available at 1.96, compared with 3.50 for Manchester United and 3.90 for the draw.
- Atlético Madrid regularly threaten the opposition goal at home: they have taken at least 13 shots in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- Manchester United have gone four matches without a win.
Form and Line-up Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid have played with discipline recently: they received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in each of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Champions League, while 9 of those 10 matches had under 23.5 fouls.
- There were fewer than 3.5 offsides in 9 of Atlético Madrid's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- Atlético Madrid had more than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 8 of Atlético Madrid's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Champions League.
Probable line-up: Jan Oblak, Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, David Hancko, Álex Grimaldo, Marcos Llorente, Morten Hjulmand, Álex Baena, Giuliano Simeone, Julián Alvarez, Jonathan David.
Form and Line-up Manchester United
Manchester United have not won since the start of September: in their recent matches, they have drawn twice and lost twice.
- Manchester United have not won an away match in the 2026/27 season: they have drawn twice and lost to Hull City (0:2).
- Manchester United have not won away in the UEFA Champions League since November 2021.
- Manchester United have conceded in seven of their eight matches this season.
Probable line-up: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw, Youri Tielemans, Kobbie Mainoo, Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Matheus Cunha.
Match outcome probabilities
An Atlético Madrid win is offered at 1.96; the fair odds are 2.06, implying a 48.5% probability. For the draw, the corresponding figures are 3.90, 4.10 and 24.4%; for a Manchester United win, they are 3.50, 3.68 and 27.2%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid to win | 1.96 | 2.06 | 48.5% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.10 | 24.4% |
| Manchester United to win | 3.50 | 3.68 | 27.2% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.49 and Over 2.5 at 1.48. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 4.05 and Over 2 at 1.19. For the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is available at 1.63 and Over 3.5 at 2.17.
| Goal line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.49 | 1.48 |
| 2 | 4.05 | 1.19 |
| 3.5 | 1.63 | 2.17 |
Handicap prediction
Atlético Madrid Draw No Bet (0) has shorter odds at 1.47 than Manchester United Draw No Bet (0) at 2.51, indicating an advantage for the hosts in this market.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | 0 | 2.51 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
1/4
|
19/20
|
| William Hill |
11/50
|
1/4
|
1/1
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
1/4
|
1/1
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Atlético Madrid — 1.5 goals; Manchester United — 1.5 goals.
Atlético Madrid team total goals
Atlético Madrid team total goals: Under 0.5 — 5.00, Over 0.5 — 1.12; Under 1 — 2.40, Over 1 — 1.52; Under 1.5 — 2.12, Over 1.5 — 1.66; Under 2 — 1.52, Over 2 — 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.52 |
| 2.12 | 1.5 | 1.66 |
| 1.52 | 2 | 2.40 |
Manchester United team total goals
Manchester United team total goals: Under 0.5 — 3.45, Over 0.5 — 1.26; Under 1.5 — 1.58, Over 1.5 — 2.26; Under 2 — 1.24, Over 2 — 3.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.45 | 0.5 | 1.26 |
| 1.58 | 1.5 | 2.26 |
| 1.24 | 2 | 3.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Glenn Nyberg (Sweden)
Matches — 20 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.9;
Matches with a red card — 3 out of 20;
Matches with a penalty — 4 out of 20.
