The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League quarter-final between Bayern Munich (Germany) and Inter Milan (Italy) will take place on April 8 at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Bayern Munich
Vincent Kompany's team reached the quarter-finals by advancing through two playoff rounds. First, Bayern overcame Celtic (2-1 and 1-1), and then they confidently defeated Bayer Leverkusen over two legs (3-0 and 2-0). As a result, the Germans enter the clash with Inter on a five-match unbeaten run in the Champions League (4 wins, 1 draw). Moreover, Bayern has been highly productive in this season's competition, scoring 28 goals, second only to Barcelona (32).
- The team has not lost in regular time in their last 22 home matches in the Champions League (17 wins, 5 draws).
- The Germans have not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 9 of their last 11 home games in this tournament.
- Bayern has scored in the second half in 8 of their last 9 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Bayern Munich (4-5-1)
Jonas Urbig – Konrad Laimer, Eric Dier, Raphael Guerreiro, Kim Min-jae – Leroy Sane, Michael Olise, Thomas Muller, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka – Harry Kane.
Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, defenders Dayot Upamecano, Alphonso Davies, and Hiroki Ito, midfielder Jamal Musiala, and forward Kingsley Coman are injured.
Inter Milan
Simone Inzaghi's side reached the quarter-finals by overcoming only one playoff stage, as Inter did not participate in knockout matches thanks to finishing in the top eight in the group stage. In the Round of 16, the team faced Feyenoord and encountered no serious problems: after a 2-0 away win, the Italians secured their success in the home match (2-1). As a result, the club has won 8 of their last 9 matches in the Champions League, with seven of those victories achieved without conceding a goal. Overall, Inter has conceded only two goals in the current tournament, leading by a margin in this statistic.
- The club has not lost in regular time in 7 of their last 9 away matches in the Champions League (4 wins, 3 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in the team's last five away matches in this tournament.
- The Italians have not conceded more than one goal in regular time in 11 of their last 13 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter Milan (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni, Benjamin Pavard – Federico Dimarco, Hakan Calhanoglu, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Nicolo Barella, Matteo Darmian – Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram.
Defender Denzel Dumfries, midfielder Piotr Zielinski, and forward Mehdi Taremi are out due to injuries. Midfielder Kristjan Asllani is suspended.
Referee
Sandro Schärer (Switzerland)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 25%.
Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan: Match Prediction
In my opinion, this encounter is unlikely to feature many goals. Bayern boasts a strong attacking line, but the team does not always manage to realize its offensive potential. The Germans have played 12 matches in the current Champions League and scored a maximum of one goal in half of them. In 3 of the 4 instances where Bayern scored at least three goals, their opponents did not make it to the playoffs (Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar, and Slovan).
Bayern may face significant challenges in breaking through Inter's defense, which has shown its strength in the current Champions League. The Italians are confident in defense even away from home: in their last 12 away matches in this tournament, the team has conceded more than one goal only twice. Meanwhile, Inter itself does not excel in scoring, having scored a maximum of one goal in 7 of their last 9 away matches in the Champions League.
It's also worth noting that in neither of the two previous head-to-head encounters in the Champions League did the teams score more than two goals. I expect a low-scoring match, so my prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
