Odds overview
Chelsea to win at 1.23 are clear favourites over the draw at 6.10 and Hull City to win at 14.00. In the standard 2.5-goal totals market, Over at 1.40 is notably favoured over Under at 2.75. In the handicap market, Chelsea (-1.5) at 1.60 has shorter odds than Hull City (+1.5) at 2.30.
Why Chelsea are favourites for the match
Bookmakers see the home side as clear favourites: Chelsea to win is available at 1.23, the draw is at 6.10, and a Hull City win is offered at 14.00.
- The home side's class: Chelsea have won four international trophies over the past five seasons, including the Club World Cup.
- Chelsea's squad is valued at more than four times as much (£1.08 billion versus £253 million).
- Attacking potential versus away-day difficulties: Chelsea lead the Premier League for scoring at the start of the season with 2.67 goals per game, while Hull City have lost the shots-on-target count in each of their last 10 league away matches.
Form and Line-up Chelsea
Chelsea began the season with exciting results: they beat Brighton 4:3, but then lost 1:2 to Arsenal, with Morgan Rogers scoring the team's only goal. A busy schedule, including a League Cup match against Leeds on 9 September, leaves the Blues with only two full days to prepare.
At home, the London side reliably control the flanks and the depth of their defence: in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge, their opponents have been caught offside no more than twice.
Key numbers:
- Chelsea have had no more than five shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home Premier League matches
- At least four yellow cards have been shown in each of Chelsea's last 10 home Premier League matches
- Chelsea have conceded at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 home Premier League matches
Probable Chelsea line-up (3-4-2-1): Emiliano Martinez – Josh Acheampong, Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana – Jorrel Hato, Reece James, Romeo Lavia, Pedro Neto – Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers – Joao Pedro
Absentees: Jordan Henderson, Marco Palestra (injured), Moises Caicedo (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Hull City
Hull City have made an exceptionally solid start: they remain the only Premier League team yet to concede. In the previous round, they held Aston Villa to a 0:0 draw in the Premier League. They only conceded for the first time in the League Cup, losing 0:1 to Sunderland on 8 September. That evening, the team won 12 corners and committed 17 fouls.
Key numbers:
- Hull City have scored no more than one goal in each of their last 10 Premier League away matches
- Hull City have had four shots on target or fewer in each of their last 10 Premier League away matches
- In 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches, Hull City have had fewer than 12.5 shots
Probable Hull City line-up (5-4-1): Konstantinos Tzolakis – Lewie Coyle, Semi Ajayi, John Egan, Nobel Mendy, Ryan Giles – Mohamed Belloumi, Regan Slater, Lucas Gourna-Douath, Elliot Stroud, Oliver McBurnie
Absentees: Charlie Hughes, Darko Gyabi, Jack Butland, Oscar Zambrano (injured)
Team chances
Chelsea to win is offered at 1.23; the fair odds are 1.29 and the probability is 77.5%. The draw is at 6.10, with fair odds of 6.40 and a probability of 15.6%; Hull City to win is at 14.00, with fair odds of 14.68 and a probability of 6.8%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Chelsea to win | 1.23 | 1.29 | 77.5% |
Draw | 6.10 | 6.40 | 15.6% |
Hull City to win | 14.00 | 14.68 | 6.8% |
Total goals betting tip
In the 2.5-goal market, Under is available at 2.75 and Over at 1.40, so the market expects at least three goals. For 3.5 goals, Under at 1.80 has shorter odds than Over at 2.02, with a slight edge towards a lower-scoring game.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.75 | 1.40 |
3.5 | 1.80 | 2.02 |
Handicap betting tip
Chelsea (-1.5) is at 1.60, while Hull City (+1.5) is at 2.30. On the -1 handicap line, Chelsea are at 1.30 and Hull City at 3.25. With the level handicap, Chelsea Draw No Bet at 1.03 is considerably shorter than Hull City Draw No Bet at 8.50.
Home side | Handicap | Away side |
1.60 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 2.30 |
1.30 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 3.25 |
1.03 | 0 | 8.50 |
Both teams to score betting tip
Both teams to score - No at 1.83 has slightly shorter odds than Both teams to score - Yes at 1.92, meaning the market is marginally more likely to expect at least one team not to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.92 |
No | 1.83 |
Double chance betting tip
1X at 1.05 is the most likely double-chance outcome, while 12 is offered at 1.14. X2 at 4.20 is considerably less likely according to the odds.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1/20
|
7/50
|
16/5
|
Team totals betting tip
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Chelsea — 2.5 goals; Hull City — 0.5 goals.
Chelsea team total
Chelsea team total: on the 2-goal line, Under at 2.85 is notably longer than Over at 1.37; for 2.5 goals, Under is at 2.00 and Over at 1.75; for 3 goals, Under at 1.55 has shorter odds than Over at 2.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.85 | 2 | 1.37 |
2.00 | 2.5 | 1.75 |
1.55 | 3 | 2.35 |
Hull City team total
Hull City team total: on the 0.5-goal line, Under at 1.90 and Over at 1.85 are almost level. For 1 goal, Under is at 1.27 versus Over at 3.40, and for 1.5 goals, 1.13 versus 4.80, indicating low expectations for the away side's scoring.
Under | Team total | Over |
1.90 | 0.5 | 1.85 |
1.27 | 1 | 3.40 |
1.13 | 1.5 | 4.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Farai Hallam (England)
Matches – 1 (Premier League 2026/27, available sample as of 9 September 2026)
Average fouls per match – 26
Average yellow cards per match – 3
