Odds Overview
Napoli are favourites: Napoli to win is priced at 1.82, while the draw is rated at 3.25 and Genoa to win at 5.20. On the main totals line, Under 2.5 at 1.65 looks more attractive than Over 2.5 at 2.25. In the handicap market, Genoa (0) at 3.40 and Napoli (0) at 1.27 also show a clear edge for the visitors.
Why Napoli Are Match Favourites
Bookmakers price a Napoli win at odds of 1.82. The draw is available at 3.25, while a Genoa win is priced at 5.20.
• Napoli remain solid defensively: in 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches, their opponents scored no more than one goal.
• Genoa have been modest in attack: in 8 of their last 10 league matches, the Genoese side had no more than three shots on target.
Form and Line-up Genoa
Genoa opened the new season with a convincing heavy 4:1 win over Ascoli in the Coppa Italia. Still, a one-off cup result against a weaker opponent does not guarantee attacking consistency in Serie A. At home, the Genoese side often accept low-scoring, disciplined football: in 10 of their last 10 home league matches, games involving them produced no more than nine corners, while Genoa themselves received a maximum of two yellow cards.
Key numbers:
No more than three goals were scored in 10 of Genoa's last 10 Serie A matches
In 9 of Genoa's last 10 Serie A matches, Genoa and their opponents had a maximum of nine shots on target
In 9 of Genoa's last 10 home Serie A matches, Genoa's opponents committed at least 13 fouls
Probable Genoa line-up (4-2-3-1): Justin Bijlow — Alessandro Marcandalli, Sebastian Otoa, Johan Vasquez, Mario Mitaj — Morten Frendrup, Alex Amorim — Stefano Sabelli, Tommaso Baldanzi, Mikael Egill Ellertsson — Vitor Oliveira.
Form and Line-up Napoli
Napoli ended their summer preparation period with a heavy 6:2 win over Aris in a friendly. However, the friendly status of the game and extensive rotation make it difficult to draw major conclusions about the attack's readiness. In away Serie A matches, the Neapolitans usually play in a far more restrained way: in 10 of their last 10 away games, there were a maximum of 10 corners, while opponents had fewer than 13.5 shot attempts in 9 of 10 cases.
Key numbers:
In 9 of Napoli's last 10 away Serie A matches, Napoli and their opponents had no more than eight shots on target
A maximum of three goals were recorded in 8 of the last 10 Serie A matches involving Napoli
No more than three offsides were recorded in 9 of the last 10 away Serie A matches involving Napoli
Probable Napoli line-up (4-3-3): Alex Meret — Giovanni Di Lorenzo — Amir Rrahmani — Rafa Marin — Leonardo Spinazzola — Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa — Kevin De Bruyne — Scott McTominay — Matteo Politano — Rasmus Hojlund — Noa Lang
Absentees: Billy Gilmour, Alisson Santos, Stanislav Lobotka (all injured).
Team Chances
Napoli to win is the main outcome: odds of 1.82, a no-margin estimate of 1.91 and a probability of 52.4%. The draw is offered at 3.25, with a no-margin estimate of 3.41 and a probability of 29.3%; Genoa to win is 5.20, with a no-margin estimate of 5.46 and a probability of 18.3%.
OUTCOME | AVERAGE ODDS | AVERAGE NO-MARGIN ODDS | NO-MARGIN PROBABILITY |
Genoa to win | 5.20 | 5.46 | 18.3% |
Draw | 3.25 | 3.41 | 29.3% |
Napoli to win | 1.82 | 1.91 | 52.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 at 1.65 is priced lower than Over 2.5 at 2.25. For total 2, Under 2 has the higher price — 2.15 compared with 1.67 for Over 2. At the 3.5 mark, Under 3.5 at 1.22 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 3.80.
LINE | UNDER | OVER |
2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
2 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
3.5 | 1.22 | 3.80 |
Handicap Prediction
Napoli (-1.5) is offered at 3.10, while Genoa (+1.5) is 1.32. On the 1-goal line, Napoli (-1) is priced at 2.75 and Genoa (+1) at 1.45. With a level handicap, Genoa (0) is rated at 3.40 and Napoli (0) at 1.27.
HOME | HANDICAP | AWAY |
— | -1.5 | 3.10 |
1.32 | 1.5 | — |
— | -1 | 2.75 |
1.45 | 1 | — |
3.40 | 0 | 1.27 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both teams to score — No at 1.75 is priced lower than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.02, meaning the market rates the scenario in which at least one team fail to score slightly higher.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE | ODDS |
Yes | 2.02 |
No | 1.75 |
Double Chance Prediction
X2 is the lowest-priced double chance at 1.19. The 12 outcome is offered at 1.35, while 1X is 2.00.
1X | 12 | X2 |
2.00 | 1.35 | 1.19 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Genoa — 0.5 goals, Napoli — 1.5 goals.
Genoa Team Total
Genoa: Under 0.5 is priced at 2.10, Over 0.5 at 1.70; on the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.40 compared with 2.70 for Over 1. For the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 at 1.20 is priced noticeably lower than Over 1.5 at 3.95.
UNDER | TEAM TOTAL | OVER |
2.10 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
1.40 | 1 | 2.70 |
1.20 | 1.5 | 3.95 |
Napoli Team Total
Napoli: Under 0.5 is offered at 4.05, Over 0.5 at 1.18. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 is priced at 2.85, while Over 1 is 1.37; at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.70 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.10. For total 2, Under 2 is priced at 1.27 compared with 3.45 for Over 2.
UNDER | TEAM TOTAL | OVER |
4.05 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
2.85 | 1 | 1.37 |
1.70 | 1.5 | 2.10 |
1.27 | 2 | 3.45 |
