Odds overview
Germany are favourites at 1.90 to win, while the draw is 4.15 and a Netherlands win is 3.60. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.40, compared with 2.70 for Under 2.5 goals. In the main handicap market, Germany Draw No Bet (0) at 1.45 has much shorter odds than Netherlands Draw No Bet (0) at 2.65.
Why Germany are match favourites
Bookmakers make Germany favourites, offering 1.90 for a home win. The draw is available at 4.15 and a Netherlands win at 3.60.
- Germany have been consistently strong: they have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- The Netherlands remain on a long unbeaten run, having avoided defeat in their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
Form and Line-up Germany
On 13 November, Germany beat Serbia convincingly away from home, 3:1. In the tournament's October matches, they also beat Serbia at home (2:0) and drew with Greece (0:0).
Niclas Füllkrug has returned to the national team after Jürgen Klopp called the striker up for the November camp. Defender Waldemar Anton could not join the squad because of muscle problems, so Ridle Baku was called up for the matches.
- Germany's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in all 10 of Germany's last 10 matches across official competitions.
- Germany have had more than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Germany line-up: Marc ter Stegen, Philipp Treu, Malick Thiaw, Jonathan Tah, Maximilian Mittelstadt, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Joshua Kimmich, Brajan Gruda, Florian Wirtz, Derry Scherhant, Kai Havertz
Serge Gnabry and Josha Vagnoman will miss out for Germany through injury, while Waldemar Anton is absent from the camp because of muscle problems. Miki Bauer's involvement remains in doubt.
Form and Line-up Netherlands
The Netherlands thrashed Greece 7:0 on 13 November. In October, they beat Serbia (2:1) but could only draw away to Greece (2:2).
The visitors have selection problems: forward Brian Brobbey is missing the camp, while Xavi Simons and Nathan Aké are injured.
- The Netherlands have scored more than 0.5 goals in all 10 of their last 10 matches across official competitions.
- The Netherlands have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Netherlands line-up: Bart Verbruggen, Denzel Dumfries, Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven, Jurriën Timber, Joey Veerman, Frenkie de Jong, Crysencio Summerville, Tijjani Reijnders, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen
Xavi Simons, Nathan Aké, Jeremie Frimpong and Jorrel Hato are absent for the Netherlands through injury, while Brian Brobbey is missing the camp for health reasons. Virgil van Dijk's involvement remains in doubt.
Both teams' chances
The average odds for a Germany win are 1.90; the fair odds are 1.99, implying a 50.4% probability. The draw is quoted at 4.15, with fair odds of 4.34 and a 23.1% probability. A Netherlands win is offered at 3.60, with fair odds of 3.76 and a 26.6% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany win | 1.90 | 1.99 | 50.4% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.34 | 23.1% |
| Netherlands win | 3.60 | 3.76 | 26.6% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals has much shorter odds at 1.40 than Under 2.5 goals at 2.70. At 3.5 goals, the odds are closer: Under 3.5 goals is 1.80 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.00.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.70 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
Handicap betting
For the -1.5 handicap, Germany (-1.5) are 2.80 and the Netherlands (-1.5) are 5.70. The odds are shorter at the 1.5 line: Germany (+1.5) are 1.09 and the Netherlands (+1.5) are 1.40. At -1, Germany (-1) are offered at 2.40 against 5.10 for the Netherlands (-1); at the 1 line, Germany (+1) are 1.11 and the Netherlands (+1) are 1.58. For the 0 handicap, Germany (0) have shorter odds at 1.45 than the Netherlands (0) at 2.65.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | -1.5 | 5.70 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.40 | -1 | 5.10 |
| 1.11 | 1 | 1.58 |
| 1.45 | 0 | 2.65 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score – Yes is available at 1.40, while Both teams to score – No is 2.70. The higher odds for the latter suggest that at least one team failing to score is considered less likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.40 |
| No | 2.70 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/4
|
11/50
|
91/100
|
| William Hill |
29/100
|
11/50
|
91/100
|
| LeoVegas |
3/10
|
13/50
|
4/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Germany — 2 goals; the Netherlands — 1.5 goals.
Germany team total goals
Germany Under 0.5 goals is 5.90, while Germany Over 0.5 goals is 1.08. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 2.30 for Germany Under 1.5 goals and 1.60 for Germany Over 1.5 goals. At 2 goals, Germany Under 2 is offered at 1.75 and Germany Over 2 at 2.00; at the 2.5-goal line, Germany Under 2.5 is 1.47 against 2.60 for Germany Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 2.30 | 1.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.75 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 1.47 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Netherlands team total goals
Netherlands Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 3.60, while Netherlands Over 0.5 goals is 1.25. At the 1-goal line, Netherlands Under 1 is 2.40 and Netherlands Over 1 is 1.55. At 1.5 goals, Netherlands Under 1.5 is available at 1.60 and Netherlands Over 1.5 at 2.25; at the 2-goal line, Netherlands Under 2 is 1.25 and Netherlands Over 2 is 3.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Glenn Nyberg (Sweden)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 2.5;
Matches with a red card – 3 out of 15;
Matches with a penalty – 3 out of 15.
