Odds overview
Poland are favourites at 1.86 to win, while Romania are available at 4.00 and the draw at 3.80. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is shorter than Under 2.5 — 1.72 against 2.03. Poland Draw No Bet (0) at 1.45 is a much shorter bet than Romania Draw No Bet (0) at 2.57.
Why Poland are favourites
The bookmakers favour Poland: the visitors are available at 1.86 to win. Romania are 4.00 to win, while the draw is 3.80.
- Poland have consistently avoided defeat in competitive fixtures, going unbeaten in seven of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Romania are going through a difficult spell: the hosts have failed to win seven of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Poland have already enjoyed a convincing win in a meeting between the sides in this competition: they thrashed Romania 6:0 on 2 October 2026.
Form and Line-up Romania
Romania lost 0:1 at home to Sweden on 5 October 2026. Before that, on 28 September, they lost 2:4 at home to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Earlier still, on 25 September, Romania also lost 1:2 away to Sweden.
- Over 2.5 goals was recorded in 9 of Romania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Romania scored no more than three goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- The two teams combined for more than 5.5 shots on target in 7 of Romania's last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Otto Hindrich, Andrei Raţiu, Andrei Coubiș, Matei Ilie, Nicusor Bancu, Vlad Dragomir, Lisav Naif Eissat, Dennis Man, Ianis Hagi, Darius Olaru, Tanase Florin
Form and Line-up Poland
Poland's most recent match, on 5 October 2026, ended in a 0:1 away defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina. On 28 September, they lost 1:3 away to Sweden.
Ahead of the November matches, head coach Jan Urban explained that the changes to the squad were intended to give new players a chance to show what they could do. In particular, the coaching staff called up defender Kamil Piatkowski and midfielders Bartosz Mazurek and Łukasz Poręba.
- Poland were not outshot by their opponents in any of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- At least one goal was scored in 9 of Poland's last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- The two teams combined for more than 5.5 shots on target in 8 of Poland's last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1):Mateusz Kochalski, Matty Cash, Jakub Kiwior, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Viktor Novak, Marcel Reguła, Karol Swiderski, Sebastian Szymański, Piotr Zieliński, Nicola Zalewski, Mateusz Żukowski
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Poland a 51.2% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.86 and fair odds of 1.95. The corresponding figures for the draw are 25.0%, 3.80 and 3.99; for a Romania win, they are 23.8%, 4.00 and 4.20.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romania to win | 4.00 | 4.20 | 23.8% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.99 | 25.0% |
| Poland to win | 1.86 | 1.95 | 51.2% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 2.03 and Over at 1.72. For the 2-goal total, the odds are 3.05 on Under and 1.33 on Over; at 3.5, they are 1.40 and 2.73 respectively. The market leans much more strongly towards Over 2 goals and Under 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.03 | 1.72 |
| 2 | 3.05 | 1.33 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.73 |
Handicap betting
Romania (+1) are available at 1.49, while Poland (+1) are at 2.46. For the zero handicap, Poland (0) at 1.45 are much shorter than Romania (0) at 2.57.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.49 | 1 | 2.46 |
| 2.57 | 0 | 1.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
91/100
|
11/50
|
1/4
|
| William Hill |
91/100
|
1/4
|
1/4
|
| LeoVegas |
22/25
|
27/100
|
1/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Romania — 1 goal; Poland — 1.5 goals.
Romania team total goals
For Romania, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.73 and Over 0.5 at 1.40. At the 1-goal line, Under is offered at 1.85 and Over at 1.90; Under at 3.50 and Over at 1.27 are also listed.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.73 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 3.50 | 1 | 1.27 |
Poland team total goals
For Poland, Under 0.5 goals is available at 4.40 and Over 0.5 at 1.16. At 1.5 goals, Under is offered at 1.94 against 1.80 for Over; at the 2-goal line, Under is 1.48 and Over 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 1.94 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.48 | 2 | 2.50 |
