Odds overview
Greece to win is available at around 1.45, the draw at 4.70 and Serbia to win at 6.70, making the hosts clear favourites. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 at 2.15. In the handicap market, Serbia (+1.5) at 1.65 is considered more likely than Greece (-1.5) at 2.20.
Why Greece are favourites
Bookmakers make Greece the favourites: the hosts are offered at 1.45 to win, the draw at 4.70 and Serbia at 6.70.
- Greece have a strong head-to-head record against their opponents, having won both known meetings with Serbia.
- Serbia are enduring a prolonged poor run in the competition: they have failed to win 9 of their last 10 Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Greece
In their previous Nations League match, on 13 November 2026, Greece lost 0:7 away to the Netherlands.
Earlier in the competition, Greece drew with Germany (0:0) and the Netherlands (2:2), and beat Germany 1:0. At home in the Nations League, though, Greece concede few goals: their opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Greece have failed to win 7 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- Greece's opponents had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
Probable line-up: Konstantinos Tzolakis, Lazaros Rota, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Panagiotis Retsos, Kostas Tsimikas, Konstantinos Karetsas, Nectarios Triantis, Athanasios Androutsos, Christos Tzolis, Vangelis Pavlidis, Fotis Ioannidis
Giannis Konstantelias and Dimitrios Kurmepelis will be unavailable through injury.
Form and Line-up Serbia
Serbia lost 1:3 to Germany on 13 November 2026. Vanja Dragojevic and Andrija Zivkovic were sent off in that match.
The defeat to Germany merely extended Serbia's poor run: before that, they lost to the Netherlands (1:2), Germany (0:2) and the Netherlands again (1:2). Across all official competitions, Serbia have lost 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Serbia have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Nations League matches.
- Serbia's opponents had more than 3.5 shots on target in all 10 of their last 10 Nations League matches.
Probable line-up: Vanja Milinković-Savić, Kosta Nedeljkovic, Stefan Gudelj, Nikola Milenković, Srđan Babić, Petar Sukačev, Lazar Samardžić, Stefan Džodić, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Mihajlo Cvetkovic, Dušan Tadić
Aleksandar Stanković, Strahinja Pavlović and Aleksa Terzić will miss out through injury.
The teams' chances
The average odds on Greece to win are 1.45, with fair odds of 1.52 and a probability of 65.6%. For the draw, the figures are 4.70 and 4.94, with a probability of 20.2%; for Serbia to win, they are 6.70 and 7.05, with a probability of 14.2%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece to win | 1.45 | 1.52 | 65.6% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.94 | 20.2% |
| Serbia to win | 6.70 | 7.05 | 14.2% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 2.15 and Over at 1.70, so the market leans towards a higher-scoring game. At 3.5 goals, Under is favoured at 1.45 over Over at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap betting
Greece (-1.5) are offered at 2.20, while Serbia (+1.5) are at 1.65. At the 1-goal handicap line, Greece (-1) are available at 1.70 and Serbia (+1) at 2.15. The zero handicap favours Greece much more strongly: Greece (0) are offered at 1.14, compared with 4.60 for Serbia (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.65 | |
| 1.70 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.15 | |
| 1.14 | 0 | 4.60 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.85, while Both teams to score — No is at 1.90. The odds are almost identical, with a slight edge for both teams scoring.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 |
| No | 1.90 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/100
|
9/50
|
163/100
|
| William Hill |
11/100
|
1/5
|
7/4
|
| LeoVegas |
3/25
|
9/50
|
8/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Greece — 2 goals; Serbia — 0.5 goals.
Greece team total goals
For Greece, Under 0.5 goals is available at 7.40 and Over 0.5 at 1.05. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is offered at 2.45 and Over at 1.52; at the 2-goal line, the respective odds are 1.80 and 1.95. Under 2.5 goals is quoted at 1.45, while Over 2.5 is at 2.60.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Serbia team total goals
For Serbia, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 2.10 and Over 0.5 at 1.70. At the 1-goal line, Under is available at 1.40 compared with 2.70 for Over; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 1.22 and 3.85.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 2.70 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches — 17 (international matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 17;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 17.
