Odds overview
Liverpool are favourites: the home win is available at around 1.70, while the draw is at 4.10 and the away win at 4.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. Liverpool (-1.5) is at 2.70 versus 7.70 for Atletico Madrid (-1.5), which offers stronger support for a comfortable home win.
Why Liverpool are favourites
Liverpool to win is available at 1.70, the draw is at 4.10, and an Atletico Madrid victory is at 4.60.
Liverpool are traditionally strong at Anfield: they have had more shots in all of their last 10 home Champions League matches.
Atletico lost 0:3 to Athletic Club in La Liga before this away trip, underlining their defensive vulnerability on the road.
Form and Line-up Liverpool
In their most recent Premier League match, Liverpool beat Ipswich Town 2:0 thanks to a brace from Alexander Isak and two assists from Cody Gakpo. Head coach Andoni Iraola praised the quality of the team's football in the first half after that match.
Key numbers:
At home, Liverpool have conceded no more than 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Champions League matches
In their last 10 home Champions League matches, Liverpool have drawn no more than 11 fouls.
Liverpool have received no more than 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home Champions League matches
Probable Liverpool line-up (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Ronald Araujo, Virgil van Dijk, Jeremie Jacquet, Milos Kerkez, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Victor Munoz, Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak
Form and Line-up Atletico Madrid
The Madrid club travel to Anfield after a 0:3 defeat to Athletic Club in the Spanish league. Atletico's opponents regularly apply pressure in their away Champions League matches: in 8 of their last 10 away games, they have had more than 12.5 shots at Jan Oblak's goal.
Key numbers:
Atletico have committed no more than 12 fouls in 8 of their last 10 home Champions League matches
In 9 of Atletico's last 10 Champions League matches, their opponents have been caught offside no more than once
In their last 10 home Champions League matches, Atletico have received no more than 2 yellow cards
Probable Atletico Madrid line-up (4-4-2): Jan Oblak, Marcos Llorente, David Hancko, Marc Pubill, Alejandro Grimaldo, Pablo Barrios, Alex Baena, Giuliano Simeone, Morten Hjulmand, Lee Kang-in, Ademola Lookman
Team chances
The home win is at 1.70; the fair odds are 1.78, with a probability of 56.0%. The corresponding figures for the draw are 4.10, 4.30 and 23.2%, and for the away win they are 4.60, 4.83 and 20.7%. The market clearly favours a Liverpool victory.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
Liverpool to win | 1.70 | 1.78 | 56.0% |
Draw | 4.10 | 4.30 | 23.2% |
Atletico Madrid to win | 4.60 | 4.83 | 20.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30, so a higher-scoring scenario is expected. The situation is reversed at the 3.5-goal line: Under 3.5 goals is at 1.55 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.40.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.30 | 1.60 |
3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Liverpool (-1.5) at 2.70 is considerably shorter than Atletico Madrid (-1.5) at 7.70. At the 1.5 line, Liverpool (+1.5) is at 1.04 versus 1.40 for Atletico Madrid (+1.5); at the -1 line, Liverpool (-1) is at 2.10 and Atletico Madrid (-1) at 6.70. For the 1 line, Liverpool (+1) is at 1.06 and Atletico Madrid (+1) at 1.72, while the Draw No Bet market has Liverpool at 1.30 versus 3.25 for Atletico Madrid. In every pair, the home handicap has the shorter odds.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.70 | -1.5 | 7.70 |
1.04 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
2.10 | -1 | 6.70 |
1.06 | 1 | 1.72 |
1.30 | 0 | 3.25 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.62 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.25. The latter option implies that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.62 |
No | 2.25 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.22 and 12 at 1.25 are quoted at almost identical odds and are considerably shorter than X2 at 2.15. The market considers an Atletico side that do not lose to be the less likely scenario.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.22 | 1.25 | 2.15 |
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Liverpool — 2 goals, Atletico Madrid — 1 goal.
Liverpool team total
Liverpool team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.09 is considerably favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 5.80. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is at 1.63 versus 2.20 for Under 1.5 goals; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is at 1.67 versus 2.15 for Over 2 goals. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is shorter at 1.40, while Over 2.5 goals is offered at 2.75.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.80 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
2.20 | 1.5 | 1.63 |
1.67 | 2 | 2.15 |
1.40 | 2.5 | 2.75 |
Atletico Madrid team total
Atletico Madrid team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.42 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.65. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is at 1.78 and Over 1 at 1.98, while at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.35 is clearly favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.95.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.65 | 0.5 | 1.42 |
1.78 | 1 | 1.98 |
1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Davide Massa (Italy)
Matches — 13 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.3;
Matches with red cards — 3 of 13;
Matches with penalties — 6 of 13.
