Netherlands vs Spain: betting odds 20 Mar 2025

Even without key experienced players Rodri Hernández and Dani Carvajal, Spain still boast a squad of exceptional quality across all positions. Against the Netherlands, they are expected to control possession early and push for a positive result in Rotterdam ahead of the return leg.

The Dutch didn’t struggle against Germany in the group stage, but more was expected from them. Over two legs against the German side, they conceded 3.20 xGA and allowed 32 shots—this was despite Germany often playing without a traditional striker. In their 1:1 draw away to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ronald Koeman rotated the squad, but his reserves failed to beat an underdog, managing just two shots on target from 1.29 xG.

Placed in a group with Switzerland, Denmark, and Serbia, Spain were the clear favourites and their opponents mostly played defensively against them. Nevertheless, the reigning European champions secured 16 points from a possible 18, exceeding 1.5 team goals in four matches. With Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, and Pedri González all in excellent form, Spain should have the upper hand.

Spain’s last away defeat came at the start of Euro 2024 qualifying, two years ago against Scotland (0:2). Even with Xavi Simons and Cody Gakpo, the Dutch attack lacks the same efficiency. Given Spain’s strong away record, we’re backing the safer option of a zero handicap on the visitors.