Odds Overview
Roma are clear favourites: Roma to win is priced at 1.58, while the draw is rated at 4.10 and Fiorentina to win at 5.90. On the main total of 2.5, the odds are level — Under and Over are both 1.90. For the handicap, Roma (0) at 1.20 look much more favourable than Fiorentina (0) at 4.20.
Why Roma Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers see Roma as firm favourites: a home win is priced at 1.58, while a Fiorentina win is 5.90 and the draw is 4.10. Roma double chance, 1X, is offered at 1.15. This advantage for the Rome club is explained by several key factors.
- Home factor. Roma have gone unbeaten in 11 consecutive competitive matches at the Stadio Olimpico.
- Attacking potential. Roma have scored at least twice in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Fiorentina's away problems. The visitors have not outshot their opponents in any of their last 10 away matches.
- Head-to-head record. Roma are unbeaten against Fiorentina in eight consecutive meetings at the Stadio Olimpico.
Form and Line-up Roma
Roma played five friendlies before the start of the season, but the results were not the best — two draws, two defeats and only one win.
Roma were active in the transfer market during the off-season — they bought Malen from Aston Villa and signed Daniele Ghilardi from Verona, Santiago Castro from Bologna, Konstantinos Koulierakis from Wolfsburg, Nahuel Molina from Atletico Madrid and Rodrigo Mora from Porto. The main loss was Zeki Celik leaving for Juventus on a free transfer, while Marash Kumbulla went on loan to Rayo Vallecano, Angelino to Deportivo and Artem Dovbyk to Bologna.
Key numbers:
- Both teams to score - Yes has landed in 4 of the previous 5 matches.
- Roma have scored first in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Roma have conceded in five matches in a row.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Mile Svilar — Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Mario Hermoso — Nahuel Molina, Manu Kone, Bryan Cristante, Wesley — Matias Soule, Paulo Dybala — Donyell Malen.
Absentees: Lorenzo Pellegrini (injury).
Form and Line-up Fiorentina
In the Coppa Italia, Fiorentina comfortably beat Benevento 4:1, scoring four goals by the 50th minute, and Franco Mastantuono, on loan from Real Madrid, made his debut in the second half. In pre-season, Fiorentina lost only once, won three times and drew twice.
After a disastrous previous season, Fiorentina have strengthened significantly — alongside Mastantuono, Arthur Atta from Bournemouth and Christ Oulai from Trabzonspor joined the club. Joao Mario from Juventus, Victor Valdepenas from Real Madrid, Mateo Pellegrino from Parma and Alejandro Jimenez from Bournemouth on loan also arrived.
Key numbers:
- Both teams to score - Yes has landed in 4 of the previous 5 matches.
- Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 8 matches in a row.
- Fewer than 10 corners have been taken in 5 straight games.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): David de Gea — Joao Mario, Radu Dragusin, Vieri, Victor Valdepenas — Cher Ndour, Nicolo Fagioli, Arthur Atta — Franco Mastantuono, Moise Kean, Albert Gudmundsson.
Teams' Chances
Roma to win is priced at 1.58; the no-margin estimate is 1.65 and 60.5%. The draw is quoted at 4.10, with a no-margin estimate of 4.29 and a probability of 23.3%; Fiorentina to win is 5.90, 6.17 and 16.2% respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma to win | 1.58 | 1.65 | 60.5% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.29 | 23.3% |
| Fiorentina to win | 5.90 | 6.17 | 16.2% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Under and Over are priced equally at 1.90, which does not point to a preferred scenario. On 3.5, Under at 1.35 looks noticeably more likely than Over at 2.95.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap Prediction
Roma (-1.5) at 2.55 are priced higher than Fiorentina (+1.5) at 1.50. On the one-goal handicap, Roma (-1) are 1.95 and Fiorentina (+1) are 1.85; on the zero line, Roma (0) at 1.20 are much shorter than Fiorentina (0) at 4.20.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | -1.5 | — |
| — | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.95 | -1 | — |
| — | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.20 | 0 | 4.20 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
The odds are close: Both teams to score - No at 1.83 is slightly preferred to Both teams to score - Yes at 1.92. The first outcome implies that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.92 |
| No | 1.83 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X at 1.15 is the most expected double-chance option, while 12 is available at 1.25. X2 at 2.40 is rated as much less likely.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
3/20
|
1/4
|
7/5
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Roma — 1.5 goals, Fiorentina — 0.5 goals.
Roma Team Total
Roma: Under 0.5 is 5.90, Over 0.5 is 1.08; on the 1 line, Under is 3.95 and Over is 1.20. Under 1.5 is priced at 2.05 against 1.72 for Over 1.5, while Under 2 is 1.55 against 2.35 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 3.95 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.05 | 1.5 | 1.72 |
| 1.55 | 2 | 2.35 |
Fiorentina Team Total
Fiorentina: Under 0.5 is priced at 2.10, Over 0.5 at 1.70. On the 1 line, Under at 1.40 is preferred to Over at 2.70, while Under 1.5 at 1.20 is significantly lower than Over 1.5 at 3.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 2.70 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 3.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Matteo Marcenaro (Italy)
Matches – 12 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match – 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4;
Matches with red cards – 1 of 12;
Matches with penalties – 2 of 12.
