Odds Overview
Lyon are moderate favourites: Lyon to win is priced at 2.35, while Toulouse to win is rated at 2.90 and the draw at 3.55. On the main 2.5-goal total, Over 2.5 at 1.77 looks preferable to Under 2.5 at 2.05. In the main handicap market, Lyon Draw No Bet is 1.75 against 2.10 for Toulouse Draw No Bet, which also tilts the assessment towards the visitors.
Why Lyon Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers give the visitors a slight edge: Lyon to win is priced at 2.35.
Lyon approach the start of the league season in strong match rhythm after three official European fixtures in August.
Toulouse start the season with a new head coach, Jens Berthel Askou.
Form and Line-up Toulouse
In five pre-season matches, Toulouse recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats, scoring at least one goal in four of those games.
In 9 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, the team committed at least 12 fouls, while their opponents received at least two yellow cards.
Key numbers:
At least 3 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Toulouse's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
The 24.5-foul total was exceeded in 8 of Toulouse's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
In 8 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, Toulouse were caught offside no more than once.
Probable Toulouse line-up (4-2-3-1): Mathis Niflore — Ismail Diallo — Seny Koumbassa — Rasmus Nicolaisen — Dayann Methalie — Cristian Casseres — Alexis Vossah — Aron Donnum — Julian Vignolo — Yann Gboho — Santiago Hidalgo
Form and Line-up Lyon
Lyon begin their domestic season in France after European matches, having played their previous official fixture on 18 August — just four days before the trip to Toulouse.
At the same time, in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Lyon took fewer than 14 shots, including blocked efforts.
Key numbers:
At least 3 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Lyon's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
There were at least 8 shots on target in 8 of Lyon's last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
In 8 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Lyon committed no more than 13 fouls.
Probable Lyon line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Greif — Ainsley Maitland-Niles — Ruben Kluivert — Moussa Niakhate — Abner Vinicius — Tyler Morton — Tanner Tessmann — Corentin Tolisso — Ernest Nuamah — Lois Openda — Malick Fofana
Team Chances
The margin-free assessment gives Lyon a 40.4% chance of winning at average odds of 2.35 and margin-free odds of 2.47. Toulouse are at 32.8% (2.90 and 3.05), while the draw is at 26.8% (3.55 and 3.73).
Outcome | Average odds | Average margin-free odds | Margin-free probability |
Toulouse to win | 2.90 | 3.05 | 32.8% |
Draw | 3.55 | 3.73 | 26.8% |
Lyon to win | 2.35 | 2.47 | 40.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is 1.77 against 2.05 for Under 2.5. At 3.5, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 is available at 1.40, with Over 3.5 at 2.70.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.05 | 1.77 |
3.5 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Handicap Prediction
Toulouse (-1.5) is rated at 5.00, Lyon (-1.5) at 4.30; on the +1.5 handicap, the prices are noticeably lower: 1.16 and 1.12 respectively. Toulouse (-1) is 4.30 against 3.55 for Lyon (-1), while Toulouse (+1) is 1.25 against 1.16 for Lyon (+1). On the zero handicap, Lyon Draw No Bet at 1.75 is preferable to Toulouse Draw No Bet at 2.10.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
5.00 | -1.5 | 4.30 |
1.16 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
4.30 | -1 | 3.55 |
1.25 | 1 | 1.16 |
2.10 | 0 | 1.75 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is offered at 1.65, while Both teams to score - No, meaning at least one team will not score, is 2.20. The lower price points to an expectation of goals from both teams.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.65 |
No | 2.20 |
Double Chance Prediction
The lowest odds in the double chance market are on 12 at 1.32. X2 is 1.43, while 1X is 1.60.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.60 | 1.32 | 1.43 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Toulouse — 1 goal, Lyon — 1.5 goals.
Toulouse Team Total
Toulouse: Over 0.5 is 1.30 against 3.25 for Under 0.5; Over 1 is 1.60 against 2.25 for Under 1. On the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 has the lower price at 1.55, while Over 1.5 is offered at 2.40.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Lyon Team Total
Lyon: Over 0.5 is available at 1.22 against 3.85 for Under 0.5, while Over 1 is 1.45 against 2.65 for Under 1. At 1.5, Under is 1.68 and Over is 2.12; on the 2-goal line, Under is 1.27, while Over is 3.40.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.85 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
2.65 | 1 | 1.45 |
1.68 | 1.5 | 2.12 |
1.27 | 2 | 3.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Guillaume Paradis (France)
Matches – 15 (Ligue 1, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.8;
Matches with red cards – 1 out of 15;
Matches with penalties – 1 out of 15.
