Odds Overview
In the 1X2 market, Venezia are favourites at around 2.25, the draw is priced at 3.20, and a Lecce win at 3.45. On the main 2.5-goal total, Under is clearly preferred to Over: 1.67 against 2.20. For the handicap, Venezia Draw No Bet is priced at 1.60, while Lecce Draw No Bet is 2.35.
Why Venezia Are Match Favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 2.25 on a Venezia win, the draw is priced at 3.20, and Lecce's success is available at 3.45.
- The hosts approach the start of the top-flight season under Giovanni Stroppa, maintaining continuity in their system, while Lecce are entering their fifth consecutive season in Serie A and can rely on a steady level of competitive experience.
- While keeping the structure in place, the Venezia head coach noted before the start that defensive discipline and taking care with chances would be necessary, warning that mistakes are punished far more severely in the elite.
Form and Line-up Venezia
The team came through their year in Serie B confidently: 79 points, first place and a return to the elite at the first attempt. The club did not replace Giovanni Stroppa, under whom that promotion was achieved.
The official season began with a comeback win over Modena (3:2): the hosts trailed 1:2, but saw off their opponents with late goals from John Yeboah and Akor Adams. Venezia went unbeaten in three of their four pre-season matches (2:2, 3:4, 3:0 and 8:0). In the summer, the squad was strengthened by Adams, who arrived from Sevilla, while defender Svoboda moved to Brighton.
Key numbers:
- In 8 of Venezia's 10 home Serie A matches, their opponents scored no more than one goal.
- No more than three goals were recorded in 9 of their last 10 home league games.
- The team had fewer than 12.5 shots including blocked attempts in 9 of their 10 home matches.
Probable Venezia line-up (3-4-2-1): Filip Stankovic — Armel Bella-Kotchap, Redouane Halhal, Joel Schingtienne — Antoine Hainaut, Gianluca Busio, Simon Sohm, Ridgeciano Haps — John Yeboah, Kike Perez — Akor Adams.
Form and Line-up Lecce
The team begin their fifth consecutive season in the elite with Eusebio Di Francesco, whose contract was extended. The start was unsuccessful: in the Coppa Italia, Lecce lost to Palermo after conceding twice before half-time. Their attack improved in the second half, but Konan N'Dri and Willem Geubbels failed to take their chances.
In the summer, the club lost Francesco Camarda — Milan bought back the 18-year-old forward for EUR4 million shortly after Lecce had purchased him for EUR3 million. The team had mixed results in friendlies (1:0, 5:2, 2:2 and 0:1).
Key numbers:
Lecce scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Four shots on target or fewer — in 9 of their 10 away league matches.
In 9 of their 10 away games, the team made no more than 13 shot attempts including blocked efforts.
Probable Lecce line-up (4-3-3): Wladimiro Falcone — Danilo Veiga, Kialonda Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Antonino Gallo — Lassana Coulibaly, Youssef Maleh, Umar Ngom — Santiago Pierotti, Willem Geubbels, Konan N'Dri.
Team Chances
Venezia lead the no-margin assessment: average odds of 2.25, a no-margin price of 2.36 and a probability of 42.5%. For the draw, the figures are 3.20, 3.35 and 29.9%, and for a Lecce win they are 3.45, 3.61 and 27.7% respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Venezia win | 2.25 | 2.36 | 42.5% |
Draw | 3.20 | 3.35 | 29.9% |
Lecce win | 3.45 | 3.61 | 27.7% |
Total Goals Prediction
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.67, compared with 2.20 for Over 2.5 goals. On the 2-goal line, Under is priced higher at 2.15, while Over is 1.67. For 3.5 goals, Under is 1.20 and Over is 3.90.
Line | Under goals | Over goals |
2.5 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
2 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
3.5 | 1.20 | 3.90 |
Handicap Prediction
Between Venezia handicap (-1.5) at 4.40 and Lecce handicap (-1.5) at 7.40, the hosts have the lower odds. Prices on Venezia handicap (+1.5) and Lecce handicap (+1.5) are almost level: 1.05 against 1.16. Venezia handicap (-1) is 3.55, Lecce handicap (-1) is 6.40; on the 1-goal line, the prices are 1.07 and 1.25 respectively. In the Draw No Bet market, Venezia at 1.60 are preferred to Lecce at 2.35.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
4.40 | -1.5 | 7.40 |
1.05 | 1.5 | 1.16 |
3.55 | -1 | 6.40 |
1.07 | 1 | 1.25 |
1.60 | 0 | 2.35 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both teams to score - No is assessed as slightly more likely than Both teams to score - Yes: 1.83 against 1.92. This option means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.92 |
No | 1.83 |
Double Chance Prediction
The lowest odds are on 1X at 1.33. The 12 outcome is offered at 1.38, while X2 is 1.65.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.33 | 1.38 | 1.65 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Venezia — 1 goal, Lecce — 1 goal.
Venezia Team Total
Venezia: Under 0.5 goals is 3.35, Over 0.5 goals is 1.28; on the 1-goal line, it is 2.20 against 1.63. For 1.5 goals, Under is 1.53 and Over is 2.40.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.35 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
2.20 | 1 | 1.63 |
1.53 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Lecce Team Total
Lecce: Under 0.5 goals is priced at 2.55, Over 0.5 goals at 1.50. On the 1-goal line, Under is 1.67 against 2.13 for Over, and for 1.5 goals it is 1.28 against 3.30.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.55 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
1.67 | 1 | 2.13 |
1.28 | 1.5 | 3.30 |
