The teams have played two matches each in the current qualifying cycle, with one win and one defeat apiece.
In their only head-to-head meeting on 8 September 2022, the Italy team won on the Great Britain court by a score of 90:56.
This result is an important reference point: the difference in quality then was evident in both defence and tempo.
Great Britain
In this qualifying campaign, the Great Britain team average 89 points scored and 86.5 conceded.
The average total in their games is 175.5.
At home, they score 88 and allow 89.
In six of eight home games they have failed to reach the 80.5-point mark.
In the first quarter over their last 10 games, they average 19.6 points and concede 21.9, for a combined total of 41.5.
This indicates problems against organised defences and dips in the half-court offence.
Italy
The Italy team play at a slower tempo.
The average total in their games is 160 points.
They score 79 and concede 81.
Away from home, the team score 82 and concede 81.
In six of their last seven road games, the first quarter finished under 39.5 points.
Across their last 10 matches, they have six wins and four defeats.
Their structured defence limits opponents in both tempo and shot quality, which was already evident in the head-to-head game (90:56).
Great Britain vs Italy Prediction
The Italy team's style, based on control and tight defence, reduces the Great Britain team's tempo, and the home side regularly fail to reach 80 points.
Taking into account that the hosts have lost 10 of their last 11 games and that the visitors won the head-to-head by 34 points, a victory for them looks logical.
However, we can instead focus on the hosts' scoring in the first quarter at an attractive price.
