In Group D, Italy have a record of two wins and one defeat and sit second in the standings. In the first meeting, they claimed a convincing away win (93:57), underlining the gap in quality. A victory here would all but secure qualification for the second round and boost their motivation.
Italy
In these qualifiers, Italy average 83.7 points per game and 40 rebounds. In the game against Great Britain, they converted 54% of their two-point attempts and won the battle on the glass with a +12 rebounding margin. Their expected points scored stand at 1.11 points per possession, with expected points conceded at 0.92. This balance is built on ball movement and control of the paint. Nico Mannion in the previous meeting scored 19 points and delivered five assists, creating nine potential assists. Amedeo Della Valle added 11 points. Even without Simone Fontecchio and Alessandro Pajola, the squad's depth allows them to maintain a high tempo and apply pressure on the perimeter.
Great Britain
They average 78.3 points but only 30 rebounds. In the first game against Italy, the visitors made just 24% of their three-point attempts and 45% of their two-pointers. With such numbers, their xPTS came to only 0.84 per possession. Even in the win over Iceland (90:84), they conceded more than 80 expected points and let their opponents collect 37 rebounds. The key issue is weak defence against mobile big men and slow rotations on the perimeter.
Italy vs Great Britain Prediction
Their style is based on dominance around the basket and quick ball movement to the perimeter. With an average rebounding advantage of +10 per game, they gain more second-chance opportunities and increase the number of possessions. The visitors have already lost the head-to-head meeting by a 36-point margin and are clearly weaker on key metrics. Given the difference in possession efficiency and control of the boards, the optimal market is the hosts with a -9.5 handicap. Note that they have won both head-to-head games comfortably, pulling away by more than thirty points in each.
