Odds Overview
In the 1X2 market, Villarreal are favourites at odds of 2.25, while Alaves to win is priced at 3.05 and the draw at 3.55. On the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is priced slightly lower than Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. On the handicap 0 line, Villarreal Draw No Bet at 1.65 is preferred over Alaves Draw No Bet at 2.20.
Why Villarreal Are Match Favourites
Bookmakers consider Villarreal the favourites: an away win is priced at 2.25, while an Alaves win is 3.05 and the draw is 3.55. Villarreal, double chance (Villarreal not to lose), is offered at 1.38. This advantage for the Yellow Submarine can be explained by several key factors.
Team status. Villarreal are the more experienced and higher-status team, regularly playing in European competition.
Away scoring. Villarreal have scored at least one away goal in five of their last six La Liga matches.
Head-to-head record. Villarreal have lost to Alaves only once in the previous six meetings.
Form and Line-up Deportivo Alaves
Alaves have started well — they beat Getafe at home (3:0), then drew away to Rayo Vallecano (1:1). At home, the Glorious Ones look strong, having lost only twice in their previous eight matches.
Key numbers:
Alaves have not lost with a handicap (0) in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head La Liga meetings at home (4 wins, 2 pushes)
Alaves have had at least 4 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
No more than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head La Liga meetings at Alaves' ground
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Antonio Sivera — Angel Perez, Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Jonny Otto — Mikel Rodriguez, Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibanez, Abderrahman Rebbach — Lucas Boye, Toni Martinez.
Absentees: Facundo Garces (suspended).
Form and Line-up Villarreal
Villarreal began the season with new head coach Inigo Perez and took two points from two away draws, both 2:2 — in the first round against Racing Santander, where they scored twice in one minute, and against Atletico Madrid in the second round, where both goals came from penalties.
Key numbers:
Villarreal have taken at least 4 corners in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head La Liga meetings at Alaves' ground.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 4 of the previous 5 meetings.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Luiz Junior — Santiago Mourino, Juan Foyth, Renato Veiga, Carlos Romero — Nicolas Pepe, Santi Comesana. Pape Gueye, Alberto Moleiro — Ayoze Perez, Georges Mikautadze.
Absentees: Willy Kambwala (injured).
Team Chances
Villarreal to win is priced at an average of 2.25; the no-margin estimate is 2.37, with a probability of 42.2%. For Alaves to win, the figures are 3.05, 3.21 and 31.1%, while for the draw they are 3.55, 3.74 and 26.7% respectively: Villarreal remain the most likely winners.
Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | Probability without margin |
Alaves to win | 3.05 | 3.21 | 31.1% |
Draw | 3.55 | 3.74 | 26.7% |
Villarreal to win | 2.25 | 2.37 | 42.2% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is priced lower than Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. At 3.5, there is a clear lean towards Under 3.5 goals — 1.40 against 2.75 for Over 3.5 goals.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
3.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Handicap Prediction
Alaves handicap (-1.5) is offered at 5.00, while Villarreal handicap (-1.5) is 4.10. At the 1.5 line, the odds are lower: Alaves handicap (+1.5) is 1.18 and Villarreal handicap (+1.5) is 1.12. For the -1 line, the prices are 4.40 for Alaves handicap (-1) and 3.40 for Villarreal handicap (-1); for the 1 line, they are 1.27 and 1.16 respectively. On the Draw No Bet line, Villarreal Draw No Bet at 1.65 is preferred over Alaves Draw No Bet at 2.20.
Home team | Handicap | Away team |
5.00 | -1.5 | 4.10 |
1.18 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
4.40 | -1 | 3.40 |
1.27 | 1 | 1.16 |
2.20 | 0 | 1.65 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is priced at 1.65, which is lower than the 2.20 for Both teams to score — No: the market more often expects goals from both teams than a scenario in which at least one side fail to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.65 |
No | 2.20 |
Double Chance Prediction
The lowest odds are on 12 at 1.30. X2 is offered at 1.38 and 1X at 1.65, so the no-draw option is rated higher than either double chance involving one of the opponents.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.65 | 1.30 | 1.38 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Alaves — 1 goal, Villarreal — 1.5 goals.
Alaves Team Total
Alaves: Over 0.5 goals at 1.30 is priced lower than Under 0.5 goals at 3.20; on the 1 line, Over 1 goal at 1.60 is lower than Under 1 goal at 2.25. For 1.5, by contrast, the market favours Under 1.5 goals at 1.53 against 2.45 for Over 1.5 goals.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
1.53 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Villarreal Team Total
Villarreal: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is notably lower than Under 0.5 goals at 4.20; on the 1 line, it is 1.40 against 2.75. Under 1.5 goals at 1.72 is priced lower than Over 1.5 goals at 2.05, while on the 2 line Under 2 goals at 1.28 is considerably lower than Over 2 goals at 3.30.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.20 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
2.75 | 1 | 1.40 |
1.72 | 1.5 | 2.05 |
1.28 | 2 | 3.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Isidro Diaz de Mera (Spain)
Matches – 21 (Primera Division, 2025/26 - 2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.9;
Matches with red cards – 7 of 21;
Matches with penalties – 5 of 21.
