Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Bayer are clear favourites at 1.45, while the draw is available at 5.00 and an away win at 6.30. In the main totals market, Under is significantly longer at 2.70 than Over at 1.40. Bayer 04 (-1) at 1.65 looks preferable to Union Berlin (+1) at 2.20.
Why Bayer are favourites for the match
The bookmakers favour the home side: a Bayer win is available at 1.45, the draw at 5.00 and a Union win at 6.30.
At home, Bayer regularly hold the attacking advantage: they have had more shots on target than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Union are more restrained away from home: the Berlin side have had no more than four shots on target in 8 of their last 10 league away matches.
Form and Line-up Bayer
Carles Martinez's debut as Bayer head coach was tense: the team lost 2:3 to Elversberg in the first round, although they recovered two goals after falling 0:3 behind.
At their home ground, Bayer play from a position of strength: in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches, they have not been outperformed by opponents for shots on target, while opponents have taken no more than five corners in all 10 matches.
Key numbers:
In 9 of Bayer's last 10 Bundesliga matches, they and their opponents have registered at least 10 shots on target.
In 8 of Bayer's last 10 Bundesliga home matches, they and their opponents have committed no more than 22 fouls.
Bayer have scored and conceded in each of their last 6 Bundesliga matches.
Probable Bayer line-up (4-2-3-1): Mark Flekken — Lucas Vazquez — Loic Bade — Edmond Tapsoba — Miguel Gutierrez — Ezequiel Fernandez — Aleix Garcia — Ibrahim Maza — Malik Tillman — Afonso Moreira — Patrik Schick.
Form and Line-up Union Berlin
Mauro Lustrinelli began his work with Union with an entertaining 3:3 draw against Eintracht. The Berlin side were 1:3 down but levelled through goals from Leopold Querfeld and Tim Skarke.
In away matches, Union's opponents rarely escape tight control: they have committed no more than 11 fouls in 9 of 10 matches and have been caught offside no more than twice in the same number of matches.
Key numbers:
At least 3 goals have been scored in 8 of Union's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Union have scored no more than 1 goal in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
Union have received no more than 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable Union Berlin line-up (4-4-2): Matheo Raab — Josip Juranovic — Leopold Querfeld — Zeno van den Bosch — Tom Rothe — Michel Aebischer — Aljoscha Kemlein — Rani Khedira — Andras Schafer — Emmanuel Latte Lath — Marin Ljubicic
Team chances
Home win: average odds of 1.45, fair odds of 1.52 and a probability of 65.8%. The corresponding figures for the draw are 5.00, 5.24 and 19.1%; for an away win, they are 6.30, 6.60 and 15.1%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Bayer to win | 1.45 | 1.52 | 65.8% |
Draw | 5.00 | 5.24 | 19.1% |
Union Berlin to win | 6.30 | 6.60 | 15.1% |
Total goals prediction
For the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.70 and Over 2.5 at 1.40, which clearly favours a high-scoring scenario. The balance is closer at 3.5: Under 3.5 is 1.78 and Over 3.5 is 2.03.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.70 | 1.40 |
3.5 | 1.78 | 2.03 |
Handicap prediction
Bayer 04 (-1.5) is available at 2.10, while Union Berlin (+1.5) is 1.75. For a one-goal handicap, Bayer 04 (-1) is 1.65 against 2.20 for Union Berlin (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Bayer are 1.16 and Union are 4.40.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.10 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.75 |
1.65 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.20 |
1.16 | 0 | 4.40 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.58 and is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.30; the latter means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.58 |
No | 2.30 |
Double chance prediction
1X is the shortest option at 1.14, 12 is available at 1.19, while X2 is significantly longer at 2.75.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.14 | 1.19 | 2.75 |
Team total prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Bayer — 2.5 goals, Union — 1 goal.
Bayer team total
Bayer team total: Under 0.5 is 7.90 and Over 0.5 is 1.04. For the 2 line, Under 2 is available at 2.20 and Over 2 at 1.65; for 2.5, they are 1.70 and 2.10 respectively. For the 3 line, Under 3 is 1.35 and Over 3 is 2.95.
Under | Team total | Over |
7.90 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
2.20 | 2 | 1.65 |
1.70 | 2.5 | 2.10 |
1.35 | 3 | 2.95 |
Union Berlin team total
Union team total: Under 0.5 is available at 2.55 and Over 0.5 at 1.48. For the 1 line, Under 1 is 1.65 against 2.20 for Over 1, while for 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.30 and Over 1.5 is 3.15.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
1.65 | 1 | 2.20 |
1.30 | 1.5 | 3.15 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Robin Braun (Germany)
Matches — 9 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.3;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 9;
Matches with penalties — 6 of 9.
