Odds overview
Besiktas are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.80, while the draw and an away win are quoted at 4.05 and 4.15. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is considerably favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. In the handicap market, the home team Draw No Bet at 1.35 looks substantially more likely than the away team Draw No Bet at 2.95.
Why Besiktas are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Besiktas win is quoted at 1.80, the draw at 4.05 and a Marseille win at 4.15.
- Besiktas come into the match after a 3:0 home win over Erzurumspor in the Turkish Super Lig.
- Marseille lost 0:1 away to Rennes in the previous Ligue 1 round.
Form and Line-up Besiktas
At home, the Istanbul club focus on attacking and ball control: in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League home matches, Besiktas have registered at least 5 shots on target while being caught offside no more than once.
- Besiktas' opponents have taken no more than 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League home matches.
- No more than 10 corners have been taken in 8 of Besiktas' last 10 UEFA Europa League home matches.
- No more than 3 offsides have been recorded in 9 of Besiktas' last 10 UEFA Europa League home matches.
Probable Besiktas line-up (4-1-4-1): Alexander Nubel, Kassoum Ouattara, Emmanuel Agbadou, Emirhan Topcu, Amir Murillo, Salih Ozcan, Orkun Kokcu, Junior Olaitan, Vaclav Cerny, Hyeon-gyu Oh, Leandro Trossard.
Ridvan Yilmaz is doubtful with a thigh injury.
Form and Line-up Marseille
The French side set up defensively away from home, seeking to contain opponents and relying on quick transitions after winning the ball back.
- In 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Marseille's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals.
- No more than 4 goals have been scored in 9 of Marseille's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- At least one goal has been scored in the second half of each of Marseille's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Marseille line-up: Jeffrey de Lange, Timothy Weah, CJ Egan-Riley, Nayef Aguerd, Emerson, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Amine Harit, Angel Gomes, Himad Abdelli, Igor Paixao, Amine Gouiri.
Team chances
Besiktas to win at 1.80 corresponds to a 53.2% fair probability (fair odds: 1.88). The draw at 4.05 is assessed at 23.7% and 4.23, while Marseille to win at 4.15 is assessed at 23.1% and 4.33.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 1.80 | 1.88 | 53.2% |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.23 | 23.7% |
| Marseille win | 4.15 | 4.33 | 23.1% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 3.5 line, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.55 compared with 2.35 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
The home handicap (-1.5) is available at 2.80, while the away handicap (-1.5) is at 7.00. At the 1.5 line, the home handicap (1.5) is shorter at 1.05 versus 1.40 for the away handicap (1.5); at the -1 line, the home handicap (-1) is 2.30 versus 6.10 for the away handicap (-1). The home handicap (1) is available at 1.08, the away handicap (1) at 1.62, while the home team Draw No Bet at 1.35 is considerably shorter than the away team Draw No Bet at 2.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | -1.5 | 7.00 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.30 | -1 | 6.10 |
| 1.08 | 1 | 1.62 |
| 1.35 | 0 | 2.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.57 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.35, meaning the less expected outcome is that at least one of the teams will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/5
|
11/50
|
11/10
|
| William Hill |
11/50
|
1/4
|
1/1
|
| 888sport |
1/5
|
11/50
|
11/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Besiktas — 1.5 goals, Marseille — 1 goal.
Besiktas team total goals
Besiktas team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.09 is considerably favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 5.70, while Over 1 goal at 1.18 is favoured over Under 1 goal at 4.05. At the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 goals is available at 1.68 compared with 2.12 for Under 1.5 goals; at the 2 line, Under 2 goals at 1.60 is shorter than Over 2 goals at 2.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 4.05 | 1 | 1.18 |
| 2.12 | 1.5 | 1.68 |
| 1.60 | 2 | 2.25 |
Marseille team total goals
Marseille team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.35 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.90. At the 1 line, the odds are almost even: Over 1 goal is 1.82 and Under 1 goal is 1.95; Under 1.5 goals at 1.40 looks considerably more likely than Over 1.5 goals at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.82 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andrea Colombo (Italy)
Matches — 7 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellow cards — 3.4;
Matches with red cards — 3 of 7;
Matches with penalties — 3 of 7.
