Odds Overview
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.25, compared with 6.70 for a draw and 10.00 for an away win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.32 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 3.10. Borussia Dortmund (-1.5) at 1.67 is rated more highly than Paderborn (+1.5) at 2.20.
Why Borussia Dortmund Are Favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a clear advantage: a Borussia Dortmund win is available at 1.25, the draw at 6.70 and a Paderborn victory at 10.00.
• Borussia have made a confident start to the league campaign and sit third with six points after two rounds.
• Paderborn have not scored a goal yet and rank bottom of the league for scoring.
Form and Line-up Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund are controlling matters confidently in front of their own goal: in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches, their opponents have had fewer than 12.5 shots. Borussia's opponents also regularly commit fouls, averaging 16 infringements per game.
- Borussia have not lost the corner count in their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Borussia have been caught offside no more than twice in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- In 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches, Borussia's opponents have received no more than two yellow cards.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Gregor Kobel, Joan Gadu, Waldemar Anton, Ethan Nwaneri, Julian Ryerson, Daniel Svensson, Felix Nmecha, Jobe Bellingham, Konstantinos Karetsas, Maximilian Beier, Serhou Guirassy.
Unavailable: Filippo Mane, Emre Can, Giannis Konstantelias (all injured), Samuele Inacio (suspended).
Form and Line-up Paderborn
Against Freiburg, Paderborn managed only 0.58 xG, although head coach Ralf Kettemann noted a positive impact after Steffen Tigges came on. The team are restrained away from home: in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, the combined number of shots on target did not exceed nine.
- In 8 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, Paderborn's opponents have taken at least five corners.
- Paderborn have been caught offside no more than twice in 8 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- Paderborn have not lost the yellow-card count in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-1-2): Nahuel Noll, Jano ter Horst, Tjark Scheller, Mattes Hansen, Laurin Curda, Raphael Obermair, Laurin Ulrich, Santiago Castaneda, Gabriel Vidovic, Ryan Philippe, Marvin Pieringer
Team Chances
A home win is available at 1.25; the fair odds are 1.31, with a probability of 76.2%. The figures for the draw are 6.70, 7.03 and 14.2%, while those for an away win are 10.00, 10.49 and 9.5%: the market clearly favours the hosts.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 1.25 | 1.31 | 76.2% |
| Draw | 6.70 | 7.03 | 14.2% |
| Paderborn win | 10.00 | 10.49 | 9.5% |
Total Goals Prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.32, compared with 3.10 for Under 2.5 goals, indicating that a high-scoring game is expected. At the 3.5 line, the odds are almost even: Under 3.5 goals is 1.92 and Over 3.5 goals is 1.88.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.10 | 1.32 |
| 3.5 | 1.92 | 1.88 |
Handicap Prediction
Borussia Dortmund (-1.5) at 1.67 is shorter than Paderborn (+1.5) at 2.20. The hosts' advantage is even more apparent with Borussia Dortmund (-1) at 1.32 versus 3.05 for Paderborn (+1), while in the Draw No Bet market it is 1.06 for Borussia Dortmund (0) against 6.70 for Paderborn (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.20 | |
| 1.32 | -1 | |
| 1 | 3.05 | |
| 1.06 | 0 | 6.70 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.72 is preferred to Both teams to score - No at 2.05. The higher odds on the latter outcome mean that the market is slightly more likely to expect goals from both teams than a scenario in which at least one team does not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.72 |
| No | 2.05 |
Team Total Prediction
In the team totals markets, the market expects Borussia Dortmund to score more than Paderborn.
Borussia Dortmund Team Total
Borussia Dortmund team total: Over 2 goals at 1.35 is considerably preferred to Under 2 goals at 2.90. At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals is 1.75 against 2.02 for Under 2.5 goals, while at the 3 line, Under 3 goals at 1.60 is rated more highly than Over 3 goals at 2.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 2 | 1.35 |
| 2.02 | 2.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.60 | 3 | 2.25 |
Paderborn Team Total
Paderborn team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.65 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.15. At the 1 line, Under 1 goal at 1.38 is the favourite against Over 1 goal at 2.80, while at 1.5 it is Under 1.5 goals at 1.20 versus Over 1.5 goals at 4.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.38 | 1 | 2.80 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Harm Osmers (Germany)
Matches – 15 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match – 20;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.6;
Matches with red cards – 0 of 15;
Matches with penalties – 6 of 15.
