Odds Overview
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.25, compared with 6.70 for a draw and 10.00 for an away win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.32 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 3.10. Borussia Dortmund (-1.5) at 1.67 is rated more highly than Paderborn (+1.5) at 2.20.
Why Borussia Dortmund Are Favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a clear advantage: a Borussia Dortmund win is available at 1.25, the draw at 6.70 and a Paderborn victory at 10.00.
• Borussia have made a confident start to the league campaign and sit third with six points after two rounds.
• Paderborn have not scored a goal yet and rank bottom of the league for scoring.
Form and Line-up Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund are controlling matters confidently in front of their own goal: in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches, their opponents have had fewer than 12.5 shots. Borussia's opponents also regularly commit fouls, averaging 16 infringements per game.
- Borussia have not lost the corner count in their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Borussia have been caught offside no more than twice in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- In 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches, Borussia's opponents have received no more than two yellow cards.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Gregor Kobel, Joan Gadu, Waldemar Anton, Ethan Nwaneri, Julian Ryerson, Daniel Svensson, Felix Nmecha, Jobe Bellingham, Konstantinos Karetsas, Maximilian Beier, Serhou Guirassy.
Unavailable: Filippo Mane, Emre Can, Giannis Konstantelias (all injured), Samuele Inacio (suspended).
Form and Line-up Paderborn
Against Freiburg, Paderborn managed only 0.58 xG, although head coach Ralf Kettemann noted a positive impact after Steffen Tigges came on. The team are restrained away from home: in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, the combined number of shots on target did not exceed nine.
- In 8 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, Paderborn's opponents have taken at least five corners.
- Paderborn have been caught offside no more than twice in 8 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- Paderborn have not lost the yellow-card count in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-1-2): Nahuel Noll, Jano ter Horst, Tjark Scheller, Mattes Hansen, Laurin Curda, Raphael Obermair, Laurin Ulrich, Santiago Castaneda, Gabriel Vidovic, Ryan Philippe, Marvin Pieringer
Team Chances
A home win is available at 1.25; the fair odds are 1.31, with a probability of 76.2%. The figures for the draw are 6.70, 7.03 and 14.2%, while those for an away win are 10.00, 10.49 and 9.5%: the market clearly favours the hosts.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 1.25 | 1.31 | 76.2% |
| Draw | 6.70 | 7.03 | 14.2% |
| Paderborn win | 10.00 | 10.49 | 9.5% |
Total Goals Prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.32, compared with 3.10 for Under 2.5 goals, indicating that a high-scoring game is expected. At the 3.5 line, the odds are almost even: Under 3.5 goals is 1.92 and Over 3.5 goals is 1.88.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.10 | 1.32 |
| 3.5 | 1.92 | 1.88 |
Handicap Prediction
Borussia Dortmund (-1.5) at 1.67 is shorter than Paderborn (+1.5) at 2.20. The hosts' advantage is even more apparent with Borussia Dortmund (-1) at 1.32 versus 3.05 for Paderborn (+1), while in the Draw No Bet market it is 1.06 for Borussia Dortmund (0) against 6.70 for Paderborn (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.20 | |
| 1.32 | -1 | |
| 1 | 3.05 | |
| 1.06 | 0 | 6.70 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.72 is preferred to Both teams to score - No at 2.05. The higher odds on the latter outcome mean that the market is slightly more likely to expect goals from both teams than a scenario in which at least one team does not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.72 |
| No | 2.05 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Prediction
In the team totals markets, the market expects Borussia Dortmund to score more than Paderborn.
Borussia Dortmund Team Total
Borussia Dortmund team total: Over 2 goals at 1.35 is considerably preferred to Under 2 goals at 2.90. At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals is 1.75 against 2.02 for Under 2.5 goals, while at the 3 line, Under 3 goals at 1.60 is rated more highly than Over 3 goals at 2.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 2 | 1.35 |
| 2.02 | 2.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.60 | 3 | 2.25 |
Paderborn Team Total
Paderborn team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.65 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.15. At the 1 line, Under 1 goal at 1.38 is the favourite against Over 1 goal at 2.80, while at 1.5 it is Under 1.5 goals at 1.20 versus Over 1.5 goals at 4.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.38 | 1 | 2.80 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Harm Osmers (Germany)
Matches – 15 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match – 20;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.6;
Matches with red cards – 0 of 15;
Matches with penalties – 6 of 15.
