Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Manchester City to win at 2.50 is slightly shorter than Liverpool to win at 2.65, while the draw is available at 3.70. Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.55, well below Under 2.5 goals at 2.35, suggesting expectations of a high-scoring match. In the handicap market, Manchester City Draw No Bet at 1.85 is favoured over Liverpool Draw No Bet at 1.95.
Why Manchester City are favourites
Manchester City to win is available at 2.50 (a 38.2% probability without the bookmaker's margin), while Liverpool to win is 2.65 (36.0%). The draw is offered at 3.70.
• Manchester City have been prolific in the early stages of the season, averaging 2.6 goals per match. That has put them alone at the top of the Premier League with maximum points.
• Manchester City have regularly picked up points away from home in the Premier League, going unbeaten in their last 10 away matches with six wins and four draws.
• Liverpool are still adapting to the demands of Andoni Iraola, who took charge in summer 2026, while forwards Cody Gakpo and Alexander Isak are doubtful. Hugo Ekitike is also unavailable.
Form and Line-up Liverpool
At Anfield, Liverpool remain tough opponents: they have avoided defeat in nine of their last 10 Premier League home matches. They also pose a consistent attacking threat, registering more than 12.5 shots in eight of their last 10 home games.
- Liverpool took more than 4.5 corners in eight of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Liverpool received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in nine of their last 10 home league matches.
- Liverpool's opponents were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in eight of their last 10 Premier League home games.
Probable Liverpool line-up (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet, Milos Kerkez, Ronald Araújo, Florian Wirtz, Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexander Isak, Alexis Mac Allister, Víctor Muñoz, Bradley Barcola
Absentees: Hugo Ekitike, Federico Chiesa, Giovanni Leoni, Conor Bradley (injured); Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Manchester City
In their last match before the break, Manchester City beat Sunderland 5:3 at home in a high-scoring encounter. Away from home, they consistently put opposing defences under pressure, taking more than 13.5 shots in nine of their last 10 away league matches. Their most recent trip to Manchester United was a clear exception, but six shots were still enough for a narrow 1:0 win.
- There were more than 2.5 offsides in each of Manchester City's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Over 10.5 total corners landed in eight of Manchester City's last 10 Premier League matches.
- Manchester City committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in nine of their last 10 league matches.
Probable Manchester City line-up (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Joško Gvardiol, Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández, Iliman Ndiaye, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland
Absentees: Phil Foden (suspended), Nico O'Reilly (doubtful)
The teams' chances
Manchester City to win is offered at 2.50, with fair odds of 2.62 and a 38.2% probability; Liverpool to win is 2.65, with fair odds of 2.78 and a 36.0% probability. The draw is quoted at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.88 and a 25.8% probability, making it the least likely outcome.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 2.65 | 2.78 | 36.0% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Manchester City to win | 2.50 | 2.62 | 38.2% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is considered much more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 3.5-goal line, the order is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is 1.60 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Liverpool (-1.5) and Manchester City (-1.5) are both offered at 4.20. Liverpool (+1.5) is available at 1.20 and Manchester City (+1.5) at 1.17; at the -1 line, Manchester City (-1) at 3.50 is slightly shorter than Liverpool (-1) at 3.70. Both sides have the same odds at a handicap of +1: Liverpool (+1) and Manchester City (+1) are each 1.25. At the 0 line, Manchester City Draw No Bet (0) at 1.85 is favoured over Liverpool Draw No Bet (0) at 1.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | -1.5 | 4.20 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.70 | -1 | 3.50 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.95 | 0 | 1.85 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.50 looks considerably more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.50, which requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Liverpool — 1.5 goals; Manchester City — 1.5 goals.
Liverpool team total goals
Liverpool team total goals: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is clearly favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 3.90; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.50 and Under 1 is 2.55. Under 1.5 goals at 1.70 is shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.08, while at the 2-goal line Under 2 at 1.32 is considerably more likely than Over 2 at 3.10.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.90 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.55 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | 2.08 |
| 1.32 | 2 | 3.10 |
Manchester City team total goals
Manchester City team total goals: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is considerably more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 4.20; Over 1 at 1.40 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.80. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.77 is slightly favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 1.97, while Under 2 at 1.35 is markedly shorter than Over 2 at 2.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.80 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.77 | 1.5 | 1.97 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
