Odds Overview
Mainz are favourites: a home win is available at 2.03, an away win at 3.30 and the draw at 3.95. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 at 1.50 is considerably favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.50. In the handicap market, Home Draw No Bet at 1.55 is rated more highly than Away Draw No Bet at 2.50.
Why Mainz Are Favourites
The bookmakers' odds favour the hosts: Mainz to win is offered at 2.03, Eintracht Frankfurt at 3.30 and the draw at 3.95.
Eintracht Frankfurt have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, encountering systemic difficulties on the road.
Eintracht Frankfurt suffered a 1:4 home defeat to Augsburg, while head coach Adi Hutter openly stated that the restructuring from 4-3-3 to 4-2-2-2 is still far from complete.
Form and Line-up Mainz
In the previous round, Mainz thrashed Hamburg 5:0 away from home, going into half-time two goals ahead. After the first two Bundesliga matchdays, the team are fifth in the table with 4 points and a 5:0 goal difference.
At the start of the season, Mainz have one of the league's best defensive records, having not conceded a goal. At the MEWA Arena, meanwhile, the hosts' opponents rarely incur regular disciplinary sanctions: in 9 of their last 10 home matches, opponents received no more than two yellow cards.
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches, Mainz have been caught offside at least as often as their opponents.
In 8 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches, Mainz have taken at least 5 corners.
In 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches, Mainz have had at least as many shots on target as their opponents.
Probable Mainz line-up (3-4-1-2): Alexander Schwolow, Phillipp Mwene, Fabio Gruber, Stefan Posch, Kacper Potulski, Anthony Caci, Kaishu Sano, Jae-Sung Lee, Nadiem Amiri, Sheraldo Becker, Philipp Tietz
Form and Line-up Eintracht Frankfurt
It has been a difficult start to the season for Eintracht Frankfurt: at this stage, the team are among the league's most conceding clubs, allowing opponents an average of 3.5 goals per match.
Eintracht Frankfurt have problems creating pressure away from home: they have not won the corner count in any of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, and in 9 of those 10 matches they have had no more than five shots on target.
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, Eintracht Frankfurt have not won the shots-on-target count.
In 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, Eintracht Frankfurt's opponents have taken at least 5 corners.
In 9 of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 Bundesliga matches, the teams have scored at least 3 goals.
Probable Eintracht Frankfurt line-up (4-4-2): Noah Atubolu, Elias Baum, Robin Koch, Lilian Brassier, Keita Kosugi, Ritsu Doan, Mario Gotze, Raphael Onyedika, Can Uzun, Younes Ebnoutalib, Jonathan Burkardt
Team Chances
Based on the no-margin assessment, the probability of a home win is 47.0% at odds of 2.03 and fair odds of 2.13. The draw is assessed at 24.1%: 3.95 against fair odds of 4.14. The away win accounts for 28.9%, with odds of 3.30 and fair odds of 3.46.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Mainz to win | 2.03 | 2.13 | 47.0% |
Draw | 3.95 | 4.14 | 24.1% |
Eintracht Frankfurt to win | 3.30 | 3.46 | 28.9% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 at 1.50 looks more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.50. At the 3.5 mark, the balance shifts the other way: Under 3.5 is offered at 1.67 and Over 3.5 at 2.20.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
3.5 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
Handicap Prediction
Home -1.5 is available at 3.10, while Away -1.5 is at 5.40. At the 1.5 line, Home +1.5 has the shorter odds: 1.10 versus 1.32 for Away +1.5. For the -1 handicap, the odds are 2.60 for Home -1 and 4.80 for Away -1; at the 1 line, they are 1.13 and 1.45 respectively. Home Draw No Bet at 1.55 is quoted considerably shorter than Away Draw No Bet at 2.50.
Home | Handicap | Away |
3.10 | -1.5 | 5.40 |
1.10 | 1.5 | 1.32 |
2.60 | -1 | 4.80 |
1.13 | 1 | 1.45 |
1.55 | 0 | 2.50 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.45 is considered considerably more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.60 — the scenario in which at least one team does not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.45 |
No | 2.60 |
Double Chance Prediction
The shortest odds in the double-chance market are for 12 at 1.27. The 1X bet is available at 1.35 and X2 at 1.80, so the option of the hosts not winning is assessed more cautiously.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.35 | 1.27 | 1.80 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Mainz — 1.5 goals, Eintracht Frankfurt — 1.5 goals.
Mainz Team Total
Mainz team total: Over 0.5 at 1.11 is considerably favoured over Under 0.5 at 5.10; at the 1 line, Over 1 at 1.25 versus Under 1 at 3.50. At the 1.5 mark, the odds are closer: Over 1.5 is 1.72 and Under 1.5 is 2.05. For the 2 line, Under 2 has the shorter odds at 1.57, while Over 2 is available at 2.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.10 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
3.50 | 1 | 1.25 |
2.05 | 1.5 | 1.72 |
1.57 | 2 | 2.35 |
Eintracht Frankfurt Team Total
Eintracht Frankfurt team total: Over 0.5 is offered at 1.25 and Under 0.5 at 3.55. At the 1 line, Over 1 at 1.55 is quoted shorter than Under 1 at 2.35; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.58 versus Over 1.5 at 2.30. At the 2 mark, Under 2 has the shorter odds at 1.22, while Over 2 is available at 3.85.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
2.35 | 1 | 1.55 |
1.58 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
1.22 | 2 | 3.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches — 18 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.5;
Matches with red cards — 3 of 18;
Matches with penalties — 5 of 18.
