Odds Overview
Manchester City are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.30, while the draw is 5.70 and an away win is 9.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is notably more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.35. Manchester City (-1.5) at 1.85 is rated slightly higher than Sunderland (+1.5) at 1.95.
Why Manchester City Are Favourites for the Match
Bookmakers regard the hosts as clear favourites: a Manchester City win is quoted at 1.30, the draw at 5.70 and a Sunderland win at 9.50.
• The hosts have built strong momentum at home, where they have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches.
• At home, Manchester City apply sustained attacking pressure and restrict their opponents: they have registered at least four shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home league matches, while their opponents' pre-match xG is 0.93.
Form and Line-up Manchester City
Manchester City come into the match after a 1:0 win over Manchester United, secured despite Phil Foden's dismissal in the 23rd minute. The hosts have had less time to prepare because of Thursday's EFL Cup match against Norwich City (5:0), but Enzo Maresca rotated heavily, with only Rayan Cherki retaining his place from the derby starting line-up.
- Manchester City have taken at least five corners in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches
- In 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches, Manchester City have committed no more than 11 fouls
- In 8 of Manchester City's last 10 home Premier League matches, there have been no more than four yellow cards
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Joško Gvardiol, Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández, Iliman Ndiaye, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland
Absentees: Phil Foden (suspended)
Form and Line-up Sunderland
Sunderland lost 0:2 to Arsenal, conceding the second goal from a penalty after Reinildo Mandava was sent off in the 96th minute. Régis Le Bris's side are more cautious away from home and commit plenty of fouls: in 10 consecutive away matches, they have taken no more than five corners, while their games consistently feature a high number of fouls.
- In 9 of Sunderland's last 10 away Premier League matches, there have been no more than 11 corners
- All of Sunderland's last 10 Premier League matches have featured at least 22 fouls
- In 9 of their last 10 away Premier League matches, Sunderland have received at least two yellow cards
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Robin Roefs, Nordi Mukiele, Kevin Danso, Daniel Ballard, Trai Hume, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Thomas Meunier, Enzo Le Fée, Nilson Angulo, Brian Brobbey
Absentees: Habib Diarra, Romaine Mundle (injured), Omar Alderete (doubtful), Reinildo Mandava (suspended)
Team Chances
A home win is available at 1.30; the fair odds are 1.36 and the probability is 73.3%. The figures for the draw are 5.70, 5.98 and 16.7%, while for an away win they are 9.50, 9.97 and 10.0%: the hosts have the highest rating.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City to win | 1.30 | 1.36 | 73.3% |
| Draw | 5.70 | 5.98 | 16.7% |
| Sunderland to win | 9.50 | 9.97 | 10.0% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is notably preferred to Under 2.5 at 2.35. At the 3.5 line, the balance is reversed: Under 3.5 is available at 1.55 and Over 3.5 at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap Prediction
Manchester City (-1.5) is available at 1.85 and Sunderland (+1.5) at 1.95. On the -1 handicap, Manchester City (-1) at 1.42 is notably shorter than Sunderland (+1) at 2.65, while on the level line, Manchester City (0) at 1.07 is substantially shorter than Sunderland (0) at 6.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.95 | |
| 1.42 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.65 | |
| 1.07 | 0 | 6.30 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.78 is rated higher than Both teams to score - Yes at 1.98: the market slightly more often expects at least one team not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.98 |
| No | 1.78 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Goals Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Manchester City — 2 goals, Sunderland — 0.5 goals.
Manchester City Team Total
Manchester City team total: Over 1.5 goals at 1.38 is notably preferred to Under 1.5 at 2.80. At the line of 2, Over 2 is available at 1.65 against Under 2 at 2.17, while at 2.5, Under 2.5 at 1.65 is shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.17.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | 1.5 | 1.38 |
| 2.17 | 2 | 1.65 |
| 1.65 | 2.5 | 2.17 |
Sunderland Team Total
Sunderland team total: at the 0.5 line, Under 0.5 at 1.85 is slightly shorter than Over 0.5 at 1.90. Under 1 at 1.25 is notably preferred to Over 1 at 3.55, while Under 1.5 at 1.12 is preferred to Over 1.5 at 4.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | 0.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 3.55 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 4.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Robert Jones (England)
Matches — 20 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.1;
Matches with red cards — 0 out of 20;
Matches with penalties — 4 out of 20.
