Odds Overview
In the 1X2 market, the home win looks the favourite: around 2.25 compared with 3.05 for the draw and about 3.60 for the away win. On the main total, Under 2.5 is clearly preferred to Over 2.5 — 1.45 against 2.60. On the main handicap, Rayo Vallecano handicap (0) is priced lower than Alaves handicap (0): 1.57 against 2.40.
Why Rayo Vallecano Are Favourites
Rayo Vallecano to win is priced at 2.25 in the betting, the draw is 3.05, and an Alaves victory is 3.60.
• Rayo Vallecano are strong at home: the team have not lost on goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches in La Liga.
• At their own ground, the hosts consistently create danger around the opposition goal, managing at least 4 shots on target in 10 of their last 10 home league matches.
Form and Line-up Rayo Vallecano
The start to the season under Benat San Jose was mixed: in Matchday 1, Rayo Vallecano opened the scoring against Sevilla, but lost control and were beaten 1:2, conceding the decisive goal from a stoppage-time penalty. In La Liga home matches, though, the team keep their defensive discipline: in 10 of their last 10 games on their own pitch, the hosts' opponents were caught offside no more than 2 times.
Key numbers:
In 9 of Rayo Vallecano's last 10 home matches in La Liga, the teams took at least 9 corners.
In 9 of their last 10 La Liga home matches, Rayo Vallecano had at least 13 shots including blocked efforts.
In 10 of Rayo Vallecano's last 10 home matches in La Liga, there were no more than 4 offsides.
Probable line-up (4-5-1): Augusto Batalla — Ivan Balliu — Andrei Ratiu — Florian Lejeune — Pathe Ciss — Alvaro Garcia — Unai Lopez — Jorge de Frutos — Oscar Valentin — Isi Palazon — Randy Nteka
Form and Line-up Alaves
Alaves thrashed Getafe 3:0 in the opening round, although all three of their goals came after the opposition had a player sent off. Away from home, the Basques play less dominant matches: in 9 of their last 10 La Liga away fixtures, Alaves did not outperform their opponents on corners, while the games themselves were tight contests with at least 26 fouls in 9 of 10 cases.
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 home matches in La Liga, Alaves took at least 5 corners.
In 8 of their last 10 La Liga away matches, Alaves committed at least 13 fouls.
In 9 of their last 10 La Liga away matches, Alaves were caught offside no more than 2 times.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Antonio Sivera — Jonny Otto — Nahuel Tenaglia — Ville Koski — Angel Perez — Abde Rebbach — Antonio Blanco — Pablo Ibanez — Denis Suarez — Toni Martinez — Aitor Manas
Team Chances
The home win is offered at 2.25; the no-margin estimate is 2.36 and the probability is 42.3%. The draw is 3.05, with a no-margin estimate of 3.20 and a probability of 31.2%. The away win is 3.60, the no-margin estimate is 3.78, and the probability is 26.5%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Rayo Vallecano to win | 2.25 | 2.36 | 42.3% |
Draw | 3.05 | 3.20 | 31.2% |
Alaves to win | 3.60 | 3.78 | 26.5% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 is 1.45 and Over 2.5 is 2.60, which points to the low-scoring option. On 2, Under 2 is 1.80 and Over 2 is 1.95: the prices are close. On 3.5, Under 3.5 is 1.12 against 5.00 for Over 3.5.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
2 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
3.5 | 1.12 | 5.00 |
Handicap Prediction
Rayo Vallecano (-1.5) is priced at 5.00, while Alaves (-1.5) is 7.70. Rayo Vallecano (+1.5) is offered at 1.05 against 1.12 for Alaves (+1.5). Rayo Vallecano (-1) is priced at 3.95 and Alaves (-1) at 6.70; on the +1 line, the prices are 1.06 and 1.20 respectively. Rayo Vallecano handicap (0) is 1.57, lower than the 2.40 available on Alaves handicap (0).
Home | Handicap | Away |
5.00 | -1.5 | 7.70 |
1.05 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
3.95 | -1 | 6.70 |
1.06 | 1 | 1.20 |
1.57 | 0 | 2.40 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both teams to score - No is 1.62 against 2.20 for Both teams to score - Yes, so the market is more likely expecting at least one team not to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.20 |
No | 1.62 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X is priced at 1.30, 12 at 1.38, and X2 at 1.65. The market regards 1X as the most likely double chance, while X2 is offered at the highest price.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.30 | 1.38 | 1.65 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Rayo Vallecano — 1 goal, Alaves — 0.5 goals.
Rayo Vallecano Team Total
Rayo Vallecano: Over 0.5 is 1.35 against 2.95 for Under 0.5. On the 1 line, Under 1 is 2.00 and Over 1 is 1.75. On 1.5, Under 1.5 is priced at 1.40, while Over 1.5 is 2.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
2.00 | 1 | 1.75 |
1.40 | 1.5 | 2.70 |
Alaves Team Total
Alaves: Over 0.5 is priced at 1.62 against 2.25 for Under 0.5. On the 1 line, Under 1 is 1.50 and Over 1 is 2.50. On 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.22 against 3.80 for Over 1.5.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.25 | 0.5 | 1.62 |
1.50 | 1 | 2.50 |
1.22 | 1.5 | 3.80 |
Who will referee the match
José Luis Munuera Montero (Spain)
Matches – 20 (La Liga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match – 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 3,9;
Matches with red cards – 6 out of 20;
Matches with penalties – 3 out of 20.
