Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Atletico are closer to victory: away win is 1.95 versus 4.10 for a home win, while the draw is 3.45. In the main total market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 looks more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.08. In the main handicap market, Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet is 1.40, while Sevilla Draw No Bet is 2.75.
Why Atletico Madrid are favourites for the match
Atletico Madrid are favourites in the betting markets: an away win is available at 1.95, a Sevilla victory at 4.10 and the draw at 3.45.
- The visitors have made a more assured start to the season: Atletico Madrid beat Malaga (2:0), drew with Villarreal (2:2) and were sixth with four points ahead of Matchday 3.
- The hosts come into the match amid a major rebuild: the team brought in nine new players in the summer and the transfer campaign is not yet complete, which is reflected in the cautious odds favouring the Andalusians.
Form and Line-up Sevilla
Sevilla began the league season with two successive wins under Luis Garcia, beating Rayo Vallecano (2:1) and Athletic Bilbao (3:1). However, in the second round their opponents played with 10 men from the 11th minute following a dismissal, so the early six points do not yet point to a sustained improvement in the team's level.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of Sevilla's last 10 home La Liga matches, their opponents have scored no more than one goal.
- Sevilla's opponents have had no more than 4 shots on target in 8 of the club's last 10 home league matches.
- Sevilla, under 2.5 goals has landed in 10 of their last 10 home Primera Division matches.
Probable Sevilla line-up (4-2-3-1): Odysseas Vlachodimos — Jose Angel Carmona — Aruna Sangante — Kike Salas — Gabriel Suazo — Lucien Agoume — Jon Guridi — Miguel Sierra — Peque Fernandez — Julio Diaz — Robbie Ure
Defender Oso is not in the squad, while Kike Salas has returned to fitness.
Form and Line-up Atletico Madrid
On Matchday 2, Atletico drew with Villarreal (2:2), with both of the Madrid side's goals scored from penalties. Because several players returned late from the World Cup, Diego Simeone continues to manage workloads and integrate new signings during competitive matches.
Key numbers:
- Atletico Madrid, under 2.5 goals has landed in 10 of their last 10 away Primera Division matches.
- In 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches, Atletico Madrid have attempted fewer than 13.5 shots, including blocked efforts.
- In 8 of their last 10 away La Liga games, Atletico Madrid have received at least 2 yellow cards.
Probable Atletico Madrid line-up (4-3-3): Jan Oblak — Marcos Llorente — Marc Pubill — David Hancko — Alejandro Grimaldo — Koke — Pablo Barrios — Kang-In Lee — Giuliano Simeone — Alex Baena — Ademola Lookman
Robin Le Normand will miss the match through suspension. Forwards Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth are also unavailable.
Team chances
Away win is the leading outcome: odds of 1.95, fair odds of 2.04 and a probability of 49.0%. The figures for the draw are 3.45, 3.61 and 27.7%, while for a home win they are 4.10, 4.29 and 23.3% respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla to win | 4.10 | 4.29 | 23.3% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.61 | 27.7% |
| Atletico Madrid to win | 1.95 | 2.04 | 49.0% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is 1.75 versus 2.08 for Over 2.5 goals. For the 2-goal line, Over is preferred at 1.52, while Under is 2.45; for 3.5, Under is 1.28 and Over is 3.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.08 |
| 2 | 2.45 | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 1.28 | 3.35 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 line, Atletico Madrid (-1.5) at 3.50 is considerably shorter than Sevilla (-1.5) at 8.00. At a handicap of 1, the odds are 1.43 for Sevilla (+1) and 1.05 for Atletico Madrid (+1), while at 1.5 they are 1.25 for Sevilla (+1.5) and 1.04 for Atletico Madrid (+1.5). At the -1 line, Atletico Madrid (-1) is 2.85 versus 7.00 for Sevilla (-1); at handicap 0, Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet at 1.40 is preferred to Sevilla Draw No Bet at 2.75.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | -1.5 | 3.50 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 7.00 | -1 | 2.85 |
| 1.43 | 1 | 1.05 |
| 2.75 | 0 | 1.40 |
Both teams to score prediction
The market barely separates the options: Both teams to score - Yes is 1.87, while Both teams to score - No is 1.88. The latter outcome means that at least one of the teams will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.87 |
| No | 1.88 |
Double chance prediction
X2 has the lowest odds at 1.25, followed by 12 at 1.35; 1X is 1.85.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
17/20
|
7/20
|
1/4
|
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Sevilla — 1 goal; Atletico Madrid — 1.5 goals.
Sevilla team total
Sevilla team total: at the 0.5 line, Over 0.5 is 1.52 versus 2.45 for Under 0.5. For 1, the odds are 1.65 for Under 1 and 2.15 for Over 1, while at 1.5 they are 1.30 for Under 1.5 and 3.25 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 0.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.65 | 1 | 2.15 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.25 |
Atletico Madrid team total
Atletico Madrid team total: Over 0.5 at 1.18 is significantly shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.10. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.35 versus 2.95 for Under 1; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.70 and Over 1.5 is 2.10. For the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.30 and Over 2 is 3.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 2.95 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | 2.10 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.30 |
