Odds Overview
In the 1X2 market, Tottenham Hotspur to win at 2.30 looks preferable to Newcastle United to win at 2.90, while the draw is priced at 3.80. On the 2.5-goal total, Over at 1.60 is noticeably more likely than Under at 2.30. In the main handicap line, Tottenham Hotspur Draw No Bet at 1.70 is priced lower than Newcastle United Draw No Bet at 2.15.
Why Tottenham Hotspur Are Favourites for the Match
Bookmakers give the advantage to the home side: Tottenham Hotspur to win is priced at 2.30 (around a 42.2% probability excluding margin), while Newcastle United's success is listed at 2.90 (32.8%). The draw is available at 3.80.
• Tottenham Hotspur signed midfielder Sandro Tonali from Newcastle United in the summer, and he is already starting, while Pedro Porro and Micky van de Ven are ready to rejoin the team's defensive line.
• Newcastle United began the league campaign with a draw and head into their first away match of the season amid a rebuild: Matthias Jaissle is only just implementing more aggressive football, and two days before the game the club made another midfield signing — Nico Gonzalez.
Form and Line-up Tottenham Hotspur
In the opening round of the Premier League, Tottenham Hotspur began with a 0:3 away defeat to Brentford, conceding three goals. The game exposed noticeable problems in the Londoners' defence at this early stage of the season.
That defensive vulnerability is also backed up by league-wide statistics: Tottenham Hotspur's opponents created chances worth 4.04 xG, the highest figure in the Premier League at the start of the campaign.
Key numbers:
• Tottenham Hotspur committed at least 12 fouls in their last nine Premier League home matches.
• In 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches, Tottenham Hotspur received at least two yellow cards.
• No more than four offsides were recorded in Tottenham Hotspur's last nine Premier League home games.
Probable Tottenham Hotspur line-up (4-3-2-1): Antonin Kinsky — Archie Gray, Jan Paul van Hecke, Marcos Senesi, Andy Robertson — Lucas Bergvall, Sandro Tonali, Conor Gallagher — Savinho, Mathys Tel — Dominic Solanke
Absentees: Dejan Kulusevski, Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert, Pape Sarr, Mohammed Kudus and James Maddison (injuries)
Form and Line-up Newcastle United
Newcastle United began the league season with a high-scoring home draw against Liverpool (2:2), scoring twice against the Merseysiders. After that, in the cup meeting with West Bromwich Albion, head coach Matthias Jaissle rotated his side, making six changes to the starting line-up.
Newcastle United's opening spell has been marked by high overall threat: the combined xG in the team's matches has reached 4.52, the highest figure among all Premier League clubs in the pre-match sample.
Key numbers:
• Newcastle United players were caught offside no more than twice in their last 10 Premier League matches.
• Newcastle United's opponents received at least two yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Premier League games.
• Newcastle United's opponents committed at least 11 fouls in the last nine Premier League matches.
Probable Newcastle United line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukas Hornecek — Lewis Hall, Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw, Amar Dedic — Lewis Miley, Nico Gonzalez — Anthony Elanga, Yoane Wissa, Harvey Barnes — William Osula
Absentees: Joelinton, Dan Burn (injuries)
Team Chances
Tottenham Hotspur to win is offered at 2.25; the margin-free estimate is 2.37 and 42.2%. The draw is priced at 3.80, with a margin-free estimate of 4.00 and a probability of 25.0%. Newcastle United to win is available at 2.90; the margin-free estimate is 3.05, with a probability of 32.8%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | Probability without margin |
Tottenham Hotspur to win | 2.25 | 2.37 | 42.2% |
Draw | 3.80 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
Newcastle United to win | 2.90 | 3.05 | 32.8% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Over at 1.62 is priced substantially lower than Under at 2.30. On the 3.5-goal total, by contrast, Under at 1.55 is noticeably preferable to Over at 2.40.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap Prediction
Tottenham Hotspur (-1.5) is priced at 3.90, lower than 4.70 for Newcastle United (-1.5). For the 1.5 handicap, the low prices are close: Tottenham Hotspur (+1.5) — 1.14, Newcastle United (+1.5) — 1.20. Tottenham Hotspur (-1) is offered at 3.20 versus 4.10 for Newcastle United (-1), while Tottenham Hotspur (+1) is 1.18 against 1.30 for Newcastle United (+1). In the Draw No Bet line, Tottenham Hotspur at 1.70 are priced lower than Newcastle United at 2.15.
Home team | Handicap | Away team |
3.90 | -1.5 | 4.70 |
1.14 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
3.20 | -1 | 4.10 |
1.18 | 1 | 1.30 |
1.70 | 0 | 2.15 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.52 looks noticeably more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.45, a scenario in which at least one of the teams would not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.52 |
No | 2.45 |
Double Chance Prediction
The lowest odds are on 12 at 1.30, followed by 1X at 1.43; X2 at 1.65 is assessed more cautiously.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.43 | 1.30 | 1.65 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Tottenham Hotspur — 1.5 goals, Newcastle United — 1.5 goals.
Tottenham Hotspur Team Total
Tottenham Hotspur team total: on the 0.5 line, Over at 1.15 is significantly lower than Under at 4.40. On the 1-goal total, Over is priced at 1.30 versus 3.15 for Under. For the 1.5 line, the prices are almost level: Under — 1.85, Over — 1.90. On the 2-goal total, Under at 1.35 is noticeably lower than Over at 2.90.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.40 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
Newcastle United Team Total
Newcastle United team total: on the 0.5 line, Over at 1.25 is priced substantially lower than Under at 3.65. On the 1-goal total, Over is offered at 1.50 against 2.50 for Under. For the 1.5 line, Under at 1.63 is preferable to Over at 2.20. On the 2-goal total, Under at 1.25 is significantly lower than Over at 3.60.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
1.63 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
1.25 | 2 | 3.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Peter Bankes (England)
Matches – 1 (Premier League, 2026/27 season)
Average fouls per match – 23
Average yellow cards per match – 5
