On Wednesday, 8 July 2026, Marta Kostyuk and Jasmine Paolini will meet in the Wimbledon Championships quarter-finals. The match is scheduled to start at approximately 11:00 BST.
Marta Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk, who is on a strong run of form, will try to reach the Wimbledon Championships semi-finals for the first time in her career. However, she will face Jasmine Paolini, who was recently in the top 10 and has beaten her in two of their three meetings.
Despite Paolini’s status as a recent finalist, the players’ current condition and the specifics of grass courts favour Kostyuk. Against the Ukrainian, Paolini is likely to come under intense power hitting: she will not be allowed to vary the rhythm comfortably or wait for errors from deep defence. With her flat, driven strokes, the Ukrainian is able to take the ball early and keep the initiative in the rallies.
The main argument in favour of the favourite is Kostyuk’s excellent current level and elite return game. In London she has been much more aggressive on return, regularly creating breaks, and against Paolini’s weaker, softer serve this should become a key factor. Paolini’s relatively low serving speed is likely to be an easy target for her deep, flat returns.
Jasmine Paolini
Paolini goes into this match as a recent Wimbledon Championships finalist and until recently a top-10 player, and she also leads the head-to-head against Kostyuk 2:1. However, the current state of the players and the specifics of grass do not work in her favour. Against a powerful opponent like Kostyuk, she is likely to spend long spells under pressure and be forced to defend from deep, without the opportunity to change the tempo or wait for unforced errors.
Paolini’s serve is another concern. Her delivery is relatively weak and soft, which in combination with Kostyuk’s very aggressive returning in London should play against her. The comparatively low speed of the Italian’s serve is likely to become an easy target for Kostyuk’s deep, flat returns.
Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction
On fast courts, we expect Kostyuk’s powerful, aggressive baseline play to force Paolini to act reactively at a high tempo, which she currently finds difficult to sustain. Given Kostyuk’s form, her edge on return and Paolini’s vulnerable serve, we see Marta Kostyuk as the clear favourite in this quarter-final.
We are backing Kostyuk not only to reach the semi-finals but also to cover the negative game handicap.
