Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, the away win is the favourite at 2.12, while the home win is available at around 3.20 and the draw at 3.85. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 is markedly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.40. In the handicap market, the away side Draw No Bet is at 1.60, compared with 2.35 for the home side Draw No Bet.
Why Manchester City are favourites for the match
Bookmakers offer odds of 2.12 on a Manchester City win, while Manchester United are available at 3.20 and the draw at 3.85.
• The visitors have made a confident start to the league campaign and maintained a high standard of results: Manchester City have not been outscored by their opponents in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches.
• Manchester City's away defence has disciplined itself to restrict opposing attacks: in 7 of their last 9 Premier League away matches, opponents have failed to score more than once.
Form and Line-up Manchester United
Manchester United played their most recent match in the Champions League, where they thrashed Sabah 4:0. However, Michael Carrick's side have been inconsistent in the league so far: after three Premier League matches, the club are 11th with 4 points and a goal difference of 7:6.
At home, United play with an emphasis on attack and sustained pressure. In 10 of their last 10 Premier League home matches, they have not been outperformed by opponents in shots on target, underlining their desire to put the opposition penalty area under regular pressure.
- Manchester United have registered at least 6 shots on target in 10 of their last 10 Premier League home matches
- Manchester United have scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches
- In 8 of their last 10 Premier League home matches, Manchester United have had at least 13 shots, including blocked attempts
Probable Manchester United line-up (4-3-3): Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Matthijs de Ligt, Lisandro Martinez, Patrick Dorgu, Kobbie Mainoo, Youri Tielemans, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko
Form and Line-up Manchester City
Manchester City come into the derby after a 2:0 away win over Porto in the Champions League, where the side claimed their fourth consecutive victory under Enzo Maresca and Erling Haaland scored twice after the break.
In away matches, the team consistently find ways to goal: Manchester City have scored at least once in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away games. At the same time, their away fixtures have been marked by an intense battle for position — at least 3 offsides have been recorded in all 10 of those matches.
- Manchester City have taken at least 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches
- In 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches, Manchester City have committed no more than 11 fouls
- Manchester City have received no more than 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches
Probable Manchester City line-up (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi, Josko Gvardiol, Ayoub Bouaddi, Enzo Fernandez, Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland
Team chances
The away win is the main outcome: odds of 2.12, fair odds of 2.21 and a 45.2% probability. The home win is listed at 3.20, 3.34 and 29.9%, while the corresponding figures for the draw are 3.85, 4.02 and 24.9%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United win | 3.20 | 3.34 | 29.9% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.02 | 24.9% |
| Manchester City win | 2.12 | 2.21 | 45.2% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.40. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals is preferred at 1.63, compared with 2.30 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.63 | 2.30 |
Handicap prediction
The home side handicap of -1.5 is offered at 5.50, while the away side handicap of -1.5 is at 3.25. At the 1.5 handicap, the odds are 1.30 for the home side (+1.5) and 1.10 for the away side (+1.5). At the -1 line, the home side (-1) is available at 4.80 and the away side (-1) at 2.70; at the +1 line, the home side (+1) is at 1.40 and the away side (+1) at 1.13. In the Draw No Bet market, the away side at 1.60 has shorter odds than the home side at 2.35.
| Home side | Handicap | Away side |
|---|---|---|
| 5.50 | -1.5 | 3.25 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 1.10 |
| 4.80 | -1 | 2.70 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 1.13 |
| 2.35 | 0 | 1.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.48 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.55, meaning that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.48 |
| No | 2.55 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Manchester United — 1.5 goals; Manchester City — 1.5 goals.
Manchester United team total
Manchester United team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.25 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 3.60; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is at 1.55 compared with 2.35 for Under 1. Under 1.5 goals at 1.60 is preferred over Over 1.5 goals at 2.30, while at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is at 1.22 compared with 3.80 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.35 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
| 1.22 | 2 | 3.80 |
Manchester City team total
Manchester City team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.12 is markedly shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.90, while Over 1 is at 1.25 compared with 3.50 for Under 1. At the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 goals at 1.80 is slightly preferred over Under 1.5 goals at 1.95; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is at 1.50 and Over 2 at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.50 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.95 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
Who will referee the match
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches — 32 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.1;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 32;
Matches with a penalty — 3 of 32.
