Odds Overview
Freiburg are the 1X2 favourites at 2.10, while a home win is around 3.30 and the draw is 3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is notably preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. In the handicap market, Paderborn Draw No Bet is available at 2.40, compared with 1.55 for Freiburg Draw No Bet, which also points towards the visitors.
Why Freiburg Are Favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 2.10 for a Freiburg win, 3.70 for the draw and 3.30 for a Paderborn win.
Freiburg made a successful start to the new Bundesliga season, thrashing Werder Bremen 4:1 in the first round and establishing themselves in the upper part of the table.
Paderborn are finding life difficult in the top flight: they have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
Form and Line-up Paderborn
In the first round of the Bundesliga, Paderborn drew 0:0 away to Mainz. Head coach Ralf Kettemann praised the defence but acknowledged that their play on the ball became less convincing after the break because of the high tension. The difficulties are understandable: as many as ten players in the starting line-up were making their first career starts at this level.
Before the start of the league season, Paderborn played an official German Cup match, beating Phonix Lubeck 4:2.
The home side's attack has been restrained so far: in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches, Paderborn have registered no more than 5 shots on target. At the same time, they have maintained strong discipline in duels, not receiving more yellow cards than their opponents in 9 of 10 matches.
Key numbers:
Paderborn have scored 1 goal or fewer in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches
Paderborn's opponents have taken at least 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches
Paderborn have registered no more than 4 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches
Probable Paderborn line-up (3-4-3): Nahuel Noll — Jano ter Horst — Tjark Scheller — Mattes Hansen — Laurin Curda — Raphael Obermair — Laurin Ulrich — Santiago Castaneda — Stefano Marino — Marvin Pieringer — Gabriel Vidovic
Form and Line-up Freiburg
Freiburg began their league campaign with a confident 4:1 home win over Werder Bremen. They opened the scoring from a set piece: Jan-Niklas Beste delivered a corner and Yuito Suzuki put the ball in the net. Head coach Julian Schuster was pleased with how his players controlled the match after the opening goal.
The visitors also successfully completed their European task, beating Motherwell 4:1 in the second leg of the Conference League knockout play-off matches. For the match against Werder Bremen, the coaching staff restored four players to the starting line-up — Lukas Kubler, Philipp Lienhart, Jordy Makengo and Jan-Niklas Beste.
Freiburg tend to be pragmatic away from home: in 8 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches, they have registered no more than 5 shots on target, while no more than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of 10 away matches.
Key numbers:
Freiburg's opponents have registered at least 5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches
No more than 10 corners have been taken in 8 of Freiburg's last 10 Bundesliga matches
Freiburg have received no more than 2 yellow cards in their last 10 home Bundesliga matches
Probable Freiburg line-up (4-2-3-1): Mio Backhaus — Lukas Kubler — Matthias Ginter — Philipp Lienhart — Jordy Makengo — Maximilian Eggestein — Yannick Engelhardt — Jan-Niklas Beste — Yuito Suzuki — Derry Scherhant — Igor Matanovic
Team Chances
The fair-odds assessment gives Paderborn a 28.9% chance of winning at odds of 3.46, the draw 25.8% at 3.88, and Freiburg a 45.4% chance at 2.20. Freiburg remain the most likely outcome.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Paderborn to win | 3.30 | 3.46 | 28.9% |
Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
Freiburg to win | 2.10 | 2.20 | 45.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is rated more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. The relationship is reversed at 3.5: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.50 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.50.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap Prediction
Paderborn (-1.5) at 5.70 is notably longer than Freiburg (-1.5) at 3.55. On the 1.5 line, Freiburg (+1.5) is 1.09 compared with 1.25 for Paderborn (+1.5); on the -1 line, Freiburg (-1) is 2.90 compared with 5.00 for Paderborn (-1). For handicap 1, the odds are 1.35 for Paderborn (+1) and 1.12 for Freiburg (+1), while on the zero line they are 2.40 for Paderborn Draw No Bet and 1.55 for Freiburg Draw No Bet.
Home | Handicap | Away |
5.70 | -1.5 | 3.55 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 1.09 |
5.00 | -1 | 2.90 |
1.35 | 1 | 1.12 |
2.40 | 0 | 1.55 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.57 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.35; the latter option means at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.57 |
No | 2.35 |
Double Chance Prediction
The shortest odds in the double chance market are for 12 at 1.30. X2 is available at 1.35, while 1X is 1.75.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.75 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Team Total Goals Prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Paderborn — 1 goal; Freiburg — 1.5 goals.
Paderborn Team Total
Paderborn team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.30 is preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 3.30. On the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.60 compared with 2.25 for Under 1, while on the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.55 is shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.30 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Freiburg Team Total
Freiburg team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.14 and Over 1 goal at 1.30 are substantially shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.60 and Under 1 goal at 3.30. On the 1.5 line, the odds are almost identical: Under 1.5 goals is 1.85 and Over 1.5 goals is 1.90. On the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.40, while Over 2 is 2.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
3.30 | 1 | 1.30 |
1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
1.40 | 2 | 2.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Max Burda (Germany)
Matches — 15 (2. Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 5.4;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 15;
Matches with penalties — 7 of 15.
