A Liverpool win in a friendly is usually a bet viewed with suspicion. In the summer, the score means little, line-ups change every 45 minutes and there is no motivation. But there is a simple logic here. Liverpool's bench is stronger than their opponents' starting line-up, and this is the final away match of the tour. Such games are seen out seriously. Liverpool have already won both of their matches in the USA.
Liverpool
The new manager is Andoni Iraola. He has replaced Arne Slot and is reshaping the side around quick pressing and immediate forward transitions. The first match showed what this leads to: a 4:2 win over Sunderland, six goals and an open game. The second was different. A 1:0 win over Wrexham on a narrow pitch in New York, where Liverpool endured more than they created: their opponents had five big chances to one. Seventeen-year-old Rio Ngumoha scored, with the help of a deflection. The conclusion is simple. The team are still inconsistent, but they get the result even on a bad day — that is the difference in class. Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz and Ryan Gravenberch are expected to make their first appearances of the summer in Chicago. Defender Jérémy Jacquet is set to make his debut. Joe Gomez is out for several weeks.
Leeds
Leeds have not looked consistent this summer. First came a 2:3 defeat to lower-division side Wrexham. Then a 1:0 win over Sunderland thanks to a bizarre Lukas Nmecha goal: the goalkeeper came off his line and a gentle shot from around 33 yards rolled into the net off the post. The attack looks more like isolated moments than a cohesive unit. The squad situation does not help either: Noah Okafor and Brenden Aaronson are still on holiday, Jaka Bijol is injured and Dominic Calvert-Lewin is not ready to play. Daniel Farke is setting his team up defensively and preserving them for the start of the season. He will not take risks here.
Liverpool vs Leeds Prediction
The argument against the bet is obvious: Leeds avoided defeat against Liverpool twice last season — 3:3 and 0:0. But those matches were played with maximum focus, for points. The motivation is different now. Liverpool have squad depth that Leeds will not be able to match in the second half, as well as five goals in two games compared with their opponents' two. When Isak and Wirtz come off the bench, the matter is settled within 20 minutes.
