In May, just two points separated them: Santa Clara finished 13th on 36 points, Nacional were 14th on 34. Formally, they were almost neighbours in the table. But we would not overstate that closeness now. Petit has remained with the hosts, who have a clear playing framework and went unbeaten in pre-season. Nacional have a new manager and a far more uneven summer. The gap is not huge, but it is already apparent ahead of the opening round.
Santa Clara
Petit has not turned Santa Clara into a European side — and he should not be credited with that. He did something simpler and more important: he stopped the decline. He took over the club in early February with 17 points from 20 matches and finished the season with 36. That amounts to 19 points from the remaining 14 matches. The manager stayed on for the summer. Four regular starters left, so it would be strange to speak of complete stability, but at least Petit does not have to start all over again.
The Azoreans were notably more convincing at home, taking 23 of their 36 points at the Estádio de São Miguel. The summer has not changed that picture — four wins and a draw, with a 12:2 goal record, and they thrashed Arouca 3:0 in their final warm-up match. We do not like drawing major conclusions from friendlies, but it would also be strange to dismiss such a run altogether. Vinícius Lopes, who scored six goals in the last league campaign, has stayed.
Nacional
The visitors' attack is not in as bad a state as it initially seemed. Jesús Ramírez has not gone anywhere: he remains at Nacional after scoring 16 goals in the last league campaign. In other words, their main striker is still in place. The managerial change is real, though — João Gião is in charge, while goalkeeper Lucas França has indeed moved to Santa Clara.
Gião's pre-season was uneven. Nacional secured their first win only in their seventh and final friendly, beating Camacha 1:0. Before that, they had failed to score in three consecutive matches. Their old away problems have not disappeared either: they took 14 points from 17 trips and lost nine times in the last league campaign. Two defensive absences have also been added ahead of the opening round — Ulisses and José Gomes will not play.
Santa Clara vs Nacional Prediction
Head-to-head meetings are not the main argument here, but they point in the same direction. Nacional have not beaten Santa Clara in three consecutive matches, while their last two visits to the Estádio de São Miguel ended in clean-sheet wins for the hosts, 1:0 and 2:0.
We are not expecting a thrashing, nor do we believe Santa Clara will suddenly suffocate their opponents for all 90 minutes. But the hosts simply have fewer questions at present: the same manager, strong home numbers and a much calmer summer. Nacional can put up resistance, especially with Ramírez up front, but arguments for their win have to be sought out. The case for Santa Clara is obvious.
