Odds Overview
Real Madrid are favourites: an away win is available at around 1.93, while a home win is quoted at 3.60 and the draw at 3.95. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 at 1.47 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.60. In the handicap market, Real Madrid Draw No Bet at 1.45 looks more likely than Atlético Madrid Draw No Bet at 2.60.
Why Real Madrid Are Favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: a Real Madrid win is quoted at 1.93, while Atlético Madrid are available at 3.60 and the draw at 3.95.
- Before Matchday 7, Real Madrid were above their opponents in the table, sitting second with 15 points from 6 matches, while Atlético were third with 13 points.
- The visitors lead La Liga for scoring, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
Form and Line-up Atlético Madrid
In the previous round, Atlético Madrid comfortably thrashed Osasuna 4:0. Head coach Diego Simeone noted that the team controlled the game in the first half and, after the break, extended their advantage and improved their finishing.
Defensive solidity remains a key trait for the Madrid side: conceding an average of 1.0 goal, they rank second from bottom in the league for goals conceded. In attack, they consistently put opponents' goals under pressure at home, registering 4 or more shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home league matches.
- Atlético Madrid have taken at least 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- There have been no more than 26 fouls in 9 of Atlético Madrid's last 10 home La Liga matches.
- No more than 5 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of Atlético Madrid's last 10 Spanish league matches.
Probable Atlético Madrid line-up (4-4-2): Jan Oblak, Cristian Gabriel Romero, Álex Grimaldo, Robin Le Normand, João Cardoso, Koke, Lee Kang-in, Álex Baena, Marcos Llorente, Ademola Lookman, Jonathan David
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
Real Madrid come into the derby after a 3:2 away win over Elche. During the match, the Madrid side led 2:0, allowed their opponents to level the score in the second half, but snatched all three points thanks to Carlos Espí's decisive goal.
Away from home, the team regularly creates set-piece opportunities and maintains a high intensity: in 8 of their last 10 away La Liga matches, Real Madrid have taken at least 5 corners and received at least 2 yellow cards.
- Fewer than 4 goals have been scored in 2 of Real Madrid's 3 away matches in the current La Liga season.
- Real Madrid have committed no more than 13 fouls in 10 of their last 10 Spanish league matches.
- No more than 3 goals have been scored in the first half in 6 Real Madrid matches in the 2026/2027 season.
Probable Real Madrid line-up (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konaté, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Federico Valverde, Arda Güler, Vinícius Júnior, Yan Diomande, Kylian Mbappé
Team Chances
The no-margin assessment gives Real Madrid a 49.4% chance of an away win at fair odds of 2.02. Atlético Madrid have a 26.5% chance of a home win at 3.78, while the draw has a 24.1% chance at 4.14; the market odds are 1.93, 3.60 and 3.95 respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid win | 3.60 | 3.78 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.14 | 24.1% |
| Real Madrid win | 1.93 | 2.02 | 49.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 at 1.47 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.60. At 3.5, the odds are closer: Under 3.5 is available at 1.72 and Over 3.5 at 2.13.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.60 | 1.47 |
| 3.5 | 1.72 | 2.13 |
Handicap Prediction
Real Madrid (-1.5) at 2.95 is quoted shorter than Atlético Madrid (-1.5) at 5.50. With a 1.5-goal handicap, Real Madrid (+1.5) at 1.10 is favoured over Atlético Madrid (+1.5) at 1.35. At the -1 line, Real Madrid (-1) is 2.50 versus 4.90 for Atlético Madrid (-1), while with a +1 handicap, Real Madrid (+1) is 1.12 versus 1.53 for Atlético Madrid (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Real Madrid are 1.45 compared with 2.60 for Atlético Madrid.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.50 | -1.5 | 2.95 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 1.10 |
| 4.90 | -1 | 2.50 |
| 1.53 | 1 | 1.12 |
| 2.60 | 0 | 1.45 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.45 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.60, which means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.45 |
| No | 2.60 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Goals Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Atlético Madrid — 1 goal, Real Madrid — 2 goals.
Atlético Madrid Team Total
Atlético Madrid team total: Over 0.5 at 1.27 is clearly shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.40. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.60 versus 2.25 for Under 1, while at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.55 is quoted shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Real Madrid Team Total
Real Madrid team total: Over 0.5 at 1.10 is considerably favoured over Under 0.5 at 5.40. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is 1.65 versus 2.20 for Under 1.5; at 2, Under 2 is 1.65 versus 2.15 for Over 2. At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 at 1.38 is quoted shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.40 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 2.20 | 1.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.65 | 2 | 2.15 |
| 1.38 | 2.5 | 2.80 |
