San Diego FC have conceded nine goals over their last three Major League Soccer rounds. For a -1.5 handicap, that matters more than any overall table: they are heading to Miami at a time when their defence can no longer withstand even routine pressure. Inter Miami have also had an inconsistent spell in the league, but before this match they beat CD Cruz Azul 2:0 in the Campeones Cup, with Kily González starting his tenure with a trophy.
Inter Miami
Inter Miami remain one of the league's highest-scoring teams. After 25 matches, they have 61 goals — more than two per game — and sit second in the Eastern Conference with 45 points. They have plenty of players to turn superiority into goals: Lionel Messi has 19 goals and 13 assists in Major League Soccer, Luis Suárez has 12 goals and eight assists, while Rodrigo De Paul has added four goals and 11 assists. At home, Inter recently thrashed CF Montréal 7:1, and this is exactly the kind of team for whom one goal is usually not enough.
San Diego FC
San Diego FC are in the opposite situation at the moment. They have lost three consecutive rounds: to Orlando City SC 0:1, San Jose Earthquakes 2:3 and Philadelphia Union 0:5. Over that run, they have scored only twice and conceded nine. They are not particularly resilient away from home either, with two wins in 11 Major League Soccer matches. Against Philadelphia Union, they had 58% possession and still conceded five. So the problem is no longer who has more of the ball. San Diego FC are allowing opponents to get to their goal far too easily.
Inter Miami vs San Diego FC Prediction
The first goal will decide a lot here. If Inter Miami score, the visitors will have to push forward, and it is better not to leave space against Messi, Suárez and De Paul. Miami have drawn their last three Major League Soccer matches, so the handicap is notably bolder than a straightforward win. But San Diego FC are in such a defensive slump that a two-goal margin no longer looks unusual. The bet is Inter Miami -1.5.
