This FA Cup tie brings together Southampton and Leicester City only days after their dramatic league meeting in the EFL Championship. Leicester City have just dropped three points in that match and now immediately have to face Southampton again, this time in the cup.
Southampton
In the EFL Championship match on 10 February, Southampton demonstrated strong mentality. They came into that fixture on a four-match unbeaten run, so even a 0:3 deficit after just half an hour did not break them. The squad could not pull one goal back for another 30 minutes, and Leicester City were still leading 3:1 in the 80th minute, but Southampton’s confidence and the absence of serious pressure on them allowed them to turn the match around and win 4:3. Thanks to this success under Tonda Eckert, the team jumped from 14th up to 9th place in the standings.
Earlier in the season, in the first league meeting at St Mary's Stadium, the hosts dealt with Leicester City even more comfortably, winning 3:0. Overall, they approach this FA Cup match in better form and with positive recent head-to-head results.
Leicester City
Leicester City approached that game at King Power Stadium under the shadow of a six-point deduction, which dropped them straight towards the relegation zone in the EFL Championship. They were in urgent need of a victory, but a less than full home crowd witnessed another setback. Even their advantage in that match came largely by chance: the squad produced only 0.65 xG, and their second goal resulted from a mistake by Southampton. It is difficult to remain composed when you have gone five league rounds without a win, and the psychological impact of the points deduction is clearly affecting the side.
Southampton vs Leicester City Prediction
Southampton have already beaten Leicester City twice this season: 3:0 at St Mary's Stadium and 4:3 away at King Power Stadium. Now the visitors are focused on a battle for survival in the EFL Championship, so the FA Cup looks more like an extra burden than a priority. Rotation in their line-up is very likely, which should reduce their quality further.
Southampton, by contrast, are in positive form, have recent psychological superiority over Leicester City and will be playing at home. Taking into account the direction of both teams’ seasons, the likely priorities and the recent head-to-head record, we expect the home side to progress by winning this match in regular time.
