In the previous season, Derby County failed to score in either of their two head‑to‑head matches with Leeds United in the EFL Championship (0:2 and 0:1). It appears that over the past year the gap in quality between the sides has increased significantly, with bookmakers making them clear favourites to progress comfortably to the next round.
Derby County
Derby County’s chances in this cup tie against a Premier League side are largely affected by their current form. The Rams have lost four of their last nine rounds in the second tier of English football. Against Leicester City and Wrexham (both 1:2), the hosts conceded 1.69 xGA in total over 180 minutes, which shows that opponents do not need to create many chances to score against them. At home, they have collected only 17 points from 14 EFL Championship matches – only four teams have fewer.
Leeds United
Since being promoted to the Premier League, Leeds United have often found life difficult, but they consistently stay clear of the relegation zone. An away trip to Newcastle United (3:4), where they conceded twice in added time at the end of the second half, ended the Whites’ seven‑match unbeaten run. During that sequence, they took points off Chelsea (3:1), Liverpool twice (3:3 and 0:0), and Manchester United (1:1). It is clear that Daniel Farke is doing an excellent job.
Derby County vs Leeds United Prediction
The head‑to‑head meetings between Derby County and Leeds United mentioned above took place in December 2024. We think the visitors will secure a place in the next round, as the level of the opposition should allow them to do so.
