Argentina vs Cabo Verde: prediction & betting odds 3 July 2026

Why Argentina Are Favourites for the Match

Bookmakers regard Argentina as one of the main contenders for the title: you can back Albiceleste to beat Cabo Verde at odds from 1.16 to 1.19, depending on the bookmaker:

• Argentina won all three group-stage matches with a goal difference of +7 (8:1) — only France did better (+8).

• Cabo Verde have still not won at the tournament. The national team are staying afloat only thanks to a solid defence.

• Argentina scored eight goals in three rounds — only three teams have a better attack. At the same time, Albiceleste have the third-best defence of the group stage (one goal conceded).

• Argentina's squad is almost 15 times more expensive than Cabo Verde's — EUR 807.5 million against 54.5.

Form and Line-up Argentina

Scaloni's team have made a real splash. The reigning world champions were already seen as among the contenders for the 2026 World Cup title, but after the group stage Albiceleste moved into the top four in the outright market. The win over Jordan (3:1) showed that Argentina do not rely solely on Messi's talent. Even before Leo came on, the South Americans controlled the game and had accumulated a total of 2.13 xG by the final whistle.

Key Numbers Argentina:

• Albiceleste are on a 10-match winning streak. Eight of those victories were to nil.

• Messi leads the scoring charts at the 2026 World Cup (6 goals). In the game against Jordan he broke his own record for goals in World Cup history (19).

• Only Mexico and Spain, both with 0, conceded fewer goals than Argentina (1) in the group stage.

Probable Argentina line-up (4-4-2): Emiliano Martinez — Facundo Medina, Lisandro Martinez, Cristian Romero, Nahuel Molina — Thiago Almada, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul — Lautaro Martinez, Lionel Messi.

Form and Line-up Cabo Verde

Uruguay's crushing failure is the main reason for Buvista's side's success in the group stage. In essence, the third-round match against Saudi Arabia (0:0) showed that Cabo Verde are not much different in playing level from that opponent, even though the Saudis finished bottom of the group. It is obvious that in the round of 32 the islanders will be expected to produce the same heroics as in the match against Spain at the start of the 2026 World Cup (0:0).

Key Numbers Cabo Verde:

• Buvista's team have kept four clean sheets in their last five games. In the group stage only Uruguay scored against them.

• Cabo Verde are among six national teams that scored just two goals and still reached the play-offs.

• Cabo Verde did not make the top 30 in xG at the end of the group stage (2.50).

Probable Cabo Verde line-up (4-1-4-1): Vozinha — Joao Fernandes, Diney Borges, Roberto Lopes, Wagner Pina — Kevin Lenini — Willy Semedo, Jamiro Monteiro, Deroy Duarte, Ryan Mendes — Dylon Livramento.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~4.7%). The average line is: Argentina at 1.17, draw at 7.43, Cabo Verde at 17.36.

After removing the margin, Argentina's win is estimated at roughly 82%, a draw at 13%, and Cabo Verde's success at only 5.5%. These are among the most one-sided prices at the round-of-32 stage — the market does not give the debutants any real chance.

Alternative Bets

• Argentina (-2.5) at 1.47 to 1.58: the team won all three group matches with a total goal difference of +7, so a comprehensive win looks like a logical continuation.

• "Only Argentina to score" at 1.67 to 2.13: Cabo Verde scored only from counter-attacks — and did so in just one match, against a Uruguay side in crisis.

• Over 2.5 at 1.63 to 1.70: Albiceleste played three high-scoring rounds. In every match there were at least two goals, and Over 2.5 landed in two out of three.

Total Goals Prediction

The market is confident about goals up to 2.5 but cautious regarding a big scoreline. Over 2.5 at 1.63 to 1.70 is a working option based on a 3:0 or 4:0 win for Argentina: the attacking resources of a team that scored eight goals in the group against such an opponent are virtually unlimited.

Handicap Prediction

Argentina (-1.5) at 1.47 to 1.58 is the most practical option: the team won all three group matches with a total goal difference of +7, and a similar scenario is quite realistic against a far from star-studded opponent. The (-2.5) handicap at 2.60 is attractive in terms of risk but requires confidence in a heavy win.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The market shows a clear bias towards No: 1.40 to 1.45 compared with Yes at 2.70 to 2.75. Cabo Verde have not won a single match at the tournament and scored only against eliminated Uruguay — against Argentina's well-organised defence their chances of finding the net are minimal. Both teams to score – No looks more logical: Albiceleste are capable of completely controlling the game and not allowing the opponents even a single clear chance.

Double Chance Prediction

12 (one of the teams to win) at 1.08 to 1.09 is a basic and almost uncontested option: a draw in this match is viewed by the market as an exotic outcome. It is clear that this bias is in favour of an Argentina win.

Individual Total Prediction

Argentina over 2.5 goals at 2.00 is a reasonable option, given eight goals in three group-stage rounds: the team are not used to saving energy against clear underdogs.

Argentina Individual Total

Cabo Verde under 0.5 goals at 1.50 is a logical bet: the play-off debutants have not won a single match at the tournament, and Argentina's defence is one of the best by the group-stage metrics.

Cabo Verde Individual Total

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely score is 2:0 to Argentina at 4.60: Albiceleste control games comfortably and will convert at least a couple of chances even without needing to force the tempo. An alternative is 3:0 at 5.40 if the team continue the scoring run they started in the group.

When and Where to Watch

The match will kick off on Thursday, 4 July 2026 at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami at 23:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match

Drew Fischer (Canada)

Matches – 11 (International matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 28;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 3.6;
Matches with a red card – 1 of 11;
Matches with a penalty – 3 of 11.