Belgium vs Senegal: prediction & betting odds 1 July 2026

Why Belgium Are Favourites for the Match

Bookmakers see Belgium as slight favourites: Belgium to win is offered at 2.00-2.10, the draw at 3.20-3.40 and Senegal to win at 3.60-4.00. The gap is minimal, so this is more of a slight edge than clear favourite status.

• Belgium won Group G (five points, +4 goal difference); Senegal finished third in Group I (three points).

• The European side have a more expensive squad than the African side: 547.5 million euros against 478.1 million.

• Belgium have not lost a match since the start of the 2026 World Cup qualifying cycle.

• Senegal have lost their first-choice goalkeeper Mendy. The former Chelsea goalkeeper has a ligament injury.

Form and Line-up Belgium

Belgium managed to avoid a group-stage failure compared with the World Cup in Qatar. Everything was decided by a big win over New Zealand (5:1) in the final round, with Trossard scoring twice and De Bruyne and Lukaku also getting goals. The Red Devils' defence is a concern: in the group, the team kept a clean sheet only against Iran (0:0), who spent the final half-hour with a man advantage attacking Garcia's team's penalty area.

Key Numbers for Belgium:

• The Red Devils did not make the top 20 for big chances in the group stage, with seven in three matches (22nd place).

• Since the start of April, Belgium have won only half of their matches: three wins and three draws.

• Belgium ranked second for touches in the opposition penalty area in the group stage (152). Before the start of the second half against New Zealand, they had scored only two goals.

Probable Belgium line-up (4-2-3-1):

Thibaut Courtois - Maxime De Cuyper, Arthur Theate, Brandon Mechele, Timothy Castagne - Hans Vanaken, Youri Tielemans - Leandro Trossard, Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku - Charles De Ketelaere.

Form and Line-up Senegal

As expected, Senegal became the third force in Group I behind France and Norway. Thiaw's players lost to those teams, but they comfortably beat Iraq (5:0), which allowed the team to reach the play-offs through the third-place ranking.

Key Numbers for Senegal:

• The African side play high-scoring football. Over 2.5 goals landed three times at the 2026 World Cup, and Both teams to score - Yes landed twice.

• Senegal have failed to score in only one of their last 15 matches.

• Senegal led the group stage for accurate long passes per match (28.3 on average).

Probable Senegal line-up (4-3-3):

Mory Diaw - Ismail Jakobs, Moussa Niakhate, Abdoulaye Seck, Krepin Diatta - Lamine Camara, Idrissa Gueye, Habib Diarra - Sadio Mane, Ismaila Sarr, Ibrahim Mbaye.

Absentees: Edouard Mendy (injury).

Team Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~5%). Average line: Belgium 2.05, draw 3.30, Senegal 3.80.

After removing the margin, Belgium's win is estimated at around 46%, the draw at 28% and Senegal's success at 25%. The market does not see a clear favourite, with the gap between Belgium to win and X2 minimal.

Alternative Bets

• Over 2 goals at 1.75-1.80: at least two goals were scored in five of the six group matches involving these teams.

• Draw at 3.30: Belgium drew twice in the group; the market gives ~28% without margin.

• Nicolas Jackson to score at 2.70-2.90: the main Senegal forward scored in the group stage.

• Senegal to score at 1.50: a small price, but a sound choice. The African side have scored in almost every match since the autumn spell.

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line is tilted towards the under, with the market expecting a cautious play-off match.

Under 2.5 at 1.60 is the market's choice: Belgium failed to clear the total twice in the group (0:0 against Iran, 1:1 against Egypt). Over 2 at 1.95 is an alternative given that all of Senegal's group matches produced at least four goals.

Handicap Prediction

Senegal (+1) at 3.50 is reasonable cover given the close match odds. A negative handicap on Belgium is risky: the team have won only one of their three group matches by more than one goal.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The market leans slightly towards No (1.75-1.85), but the group-stage statistics suggest otherwise. Senegal scored and conceded in every round, while Belgium conceded against Egypt and New Zealand. At odds of around 1.95 on Yes, the bet looks better than the line.

Double Chance Prediction

1X at 1.28-1.30 is the basic option for accumulators, given that Belgium did not lose in the group. X2 at 1.72-1.78 is for those who believe in a Senegalese surprise by analogy with the draw against Portugal in the African side's tournament opener.

Individual Total Prediction

Bookmakers have set the following individual totals for this match: Belgium at 1.5 goals, Senegal at 0.5 goals.

Belgium Individual Total

Belgium over 0.5 goals at 1.27 is almost a given; Belgium over 1.5 goals at 2.40 is already more aggressive given two low-scoring matches in the group.

Senegal Individual Total

Senegal over 0.5 goals at 1.50 is a workable option: Senegal have scored in three straight matches, but they managed only one goal each against France and Norway.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely scenarios are both teams scoring with a draw or a narrow Belgium advantage.

When and Where to Watch

The match will kick off on Wednesday, 1 July 2026 at Lumen Field in Seattle at 21:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match

Said Martinez (Honduras)

Matches – 10 (International matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 31;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4;
Matches with red cards – 0 out of 10;
Matches with penalties – 4 out of 10.