Brazil vs Norway: prediction & betting odds 5 July 2026

Why Brazil Are Favourites for the Match

Bookmakers favour Brazil, although the gap in the odds is small. Selecao have performed brightly at the 2026 World Cup and showed character in the previous knockout round:

• Brazil are unbeaten at the tournament, while Norway reached the last 16 after a third-round slip-up against France (1:4).

• Norway have conceded in six consecutive matches. They have obvious defensive problems, with no top-class defenders.

• Selecao's squad is one and a half times more expensive than the Scandinavians' group (928 million euros against 590).

• Norway have never reached the quarter-finals of the World Cup.

Form and Line-up Brazil

After a less than convincing start to the 2026 World Cup against Morocco (1:1), Brazil perked up. Until the second half of the match against Japan (2:1), Ancelotti's team achieved their objectives through counter-attacks, but in the last 32 they had to come from behind. Heavy pressure paid off: the home side took risks with substitutions, exposing midfield and sending Endrick forward. Substitute Martinelli scored the decisive goal, while Guimaraes registered his fourth assist of the 2026 World Cup.

Key numbers for Brazil:

• The five-time world champions have won six of their last seven matches. During that run, they scored 2+ goals six times.

• Brazil lead the 2026 World Cup for expected goals (9.40).

• Ancelotti's team have landed Both teams to score - Yes in seven of their last nine matches.

Probable Brazil line-up (4-3-3)

Alisson - Douglas Santos, Gabriel Magalhaes, Marquinhos, Danilo - Lucas Paqueta, Casemiro, Bruno Guimaraes - Vinicius Junior, Matheus Cunha, Rayan.

Form and Line-up Norway

The heavy defeat to France (1:4) in the final round of the group stage showed that Norway can trust their bench. Yes, the reserves made many mistakes, but they stayed in the game for a long time and created plenty of chances. The main thing was that Haaland, Odegaard and Sorloth were rested - and that had an impact on the last-32 match against Ivory Coast (2:1). The Manchester City forward scored the decisive goal late on, while Solbakken's team were more persistent in attack (1.91-1.48 by xG).

Key numbers for Norway:

• The Scandinavians are in the top three for big chances at the 2026 World Cup (18).

• Norway have missed 11 goalscoring chances at the tournament - only France (12) and England (15) have more. At the same time, they have scored 10 goals.

• Norway have landed Both teams to score - Yes in six consecutive games.

Probable Norway line-up (4-3-3)

Orjan Nyland - David Wolfe, Torbjorn Heggem, Kristoffer Ajer, Marcus Pedersen - Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Odegaard - Antonio Nusa, Erling Haaland, Alexander Sorloth.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~4.5%). Average line: Brazil - 1.89, draw - 3.61, Norway - 4.18

After removing the margin, Brazil's win is estimated at around 51%, a draw at 27% and Norway's success at 23%. There is a gap between W1 and W2, but bookmakers still give the Scandinavians a certain chance of reaching the quarter-finals.

Alternative Bets

• Brazil Draw No Bet - 1.37 to 1.40: a win means a winning bet, a draw means a refund. A reasonable hedge given the high probability of an even game and extra time.

• Both teams to score - Yes - 1.73 to 1.75: Norway have scored in every match at the tournament, and so have Brazil.

• Under 2.5 goals - 1.89 to 1.97: the knockout format and both teams' tactical caution could limit the total scoring.

• 1X (Brazil not to lose) - 1.23 to 1.25: a conservative option for accumulators, given their favourite status.

Total Goals Prediction

The market is close to parity on the 2.5 line, with a slight edge for Under. Both options are realistic: Norway scored plenty in the group, but the picture usually changes in knockout matches against top opponents. Under 2.5 at 1.89 to 1.97 is the basic position for cautious bettors.

Handicap Prediction

Brazil Draw No Bet at 1.37 to 1.40 is the most balanced position: a win means a winning bet, a draw means a refund. Norway (+1) at 1.50 is for those who believe in a tight contest or a sensational result from the Scandinavians.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

There is a slight edge for Yes: 1.73 to 1.75 against No at 2.00 to 2.08. Norway scored in all three group matches, and Brazil did too. Haaland is also in peak form at the tournament, while the Brazilian defence is not impenetrable - Selecao also conceded in the group stage. Both teams to score - Yes looks attractive - that is the bet we will take as the main one.

Double Chance Prediction

1X (Brazil not to lose) at 1.23 to 1.24 is the basic option for a conservative accumulator. X2 (Norway not to lose) at 1.90 to 1.95 is an attractive price for those who believe in a Scandinavian shock, given Haaland's goalscoring power.

Individual Total Prediction

Brazil under 1.5 goals at 1.88 is a market at parity: Selecao attack productively, but in knockout matches against defensively competent opponents, they do not always turn their advantage into goals.

Brazil Individual Total

Norway under 1.5 goals at 1.35 is a reliable market. Haaland can score on his own, but scoring twice against the Brazilian defence is a difficult task.

Norway Individual Total

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely score is 1:1 at 5.80, with the game going to extra time: the market reflects a high probability of an even contest, while 27% on a draw without margin confirms that scenario. The alternative is 1:0 at 6.60 in favour of Brazil, if Selecao convert one of their chances and hold on to a narrow lead.

When and Where to Watch

The match will start on Friday, 5 July 2026 at the MetLife Stadium in New York at 21:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Ismail Elfath (United States) 

Matches – 7 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 26;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 4;

Matches with a straight red card – 1 out of 7;

Matches with a penalty – 2 out of 7.