Paraguay vs France: prediction & betting odds 4 July 2026

Why France Are Favorites for the Match

Bookmakers consider France clear favorites: W1 - 1.19, draw - 7.00, Paraguay win - 15.50. France to reach the quarter-finals is priced at 1.07. There are several reasons for that.

• Tournament form. France are one of two teams at the tournament (along with Brazil) to have won all four matches in regular time, with an aggregate score of 13:2.

• Individual scoring form. Kylian Mbappe has scored in three of his four matches at the tournament (six goals in total).

• Attacking depth. Deschamps has Mbappe, Barcola, Dembele, Olise and Doue in the squad - attacking reserves that Paraguay do not come close to matching. Michael Olise has provided five assists at the tournament.

• Defense. France have conceded only two goals in four matches, keeping two clean sheets.

• Experience. France played in the final of the last World Cup, while Paraguay last reached the knockout stage in 2010.

Form and Line-up France

France reached the last 16 after a convincing win over Sweden (3:0). Kylian Mbappe scored twice and took his tournament tally to six goals. Bradley Barcola also got on the scoresheet, while Michael Olise provided two assists. In the group stage, the team gave their opponents no chance: wins over Senegal (3:1), Iraq (3:0) and Norway (4:1).

Didier Deschamps's team are showing ideal balance: control of possession (57% on average per match), high pressing and lightning-fast transitions from defense to attack. Against Sweden, the team had 25 shots (12 on target), created 3.24 xG and allowed their opponents to produce only 0.70 xGA.

Key France numbers:

• Scored at least three goals in each of their four matches at the tournament.

• Lost only once in their previous 10 matches against South American national teams - eight wins, one draw and one defeat.

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in their last 13 matches.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan - Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Lucas Digne - Aurelien Tchouameni, Adrien Rabiot - Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola - Kylian Mbappe.

Absentees: Marcus Thuram (doubtful).

Form and Line-up Paraguay

Paraguay produced one of the biggest shocks of the tournament by knocking out Germany on penalties (1:1, 4:3). In regular time, the team played with discipline, allowing Germany 14 shots but only four on target. In the group stage, the team lost to the USA (1:4), beat Turkey (1:0) and drew with Australia (0:0).

The team build their game on compactness and set pieces. In the match against Germany, Paraguay had only seven shots in 120 minutes (three on target) with 24% possession. Their main attacking force is Julio Enciso, who has been involved in all three Paraguay goals at the tournament (one goal and two assists).

Key Paraguay numbers:

• Kept a clean sheet in four of their last seven matches.

• Under 2.5 goals has landed in three of their four matches at the tournament.

• In their last 10 matches against European national teams: four wins, four draws and two defeats, including a 0:5 defeat to France in a 2017 friendly.

Probable line-up (4-4-2): Orlando Gill - Juan Jose Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Jose Canale, Junior Alonso - Miguel Almiron, Andres Cubas, Damian Bobadilla, Matias Galarza - Gabriel Avalos, Julio Enciso.

Absentees: -.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~5%). Line: France 1.19, draw 7.00, Paraguay 15.50.

France to reach the quarter-finals is priced at 1.07, which is equivalent to a 93% probability. Paraguay to qualify for the next round is 8.50. The market almost rules out an upset.

Alternative Bets

• France (-1.5) - 1.60: the main choice, landing with a win by 2+ goals.

• Over 2.5 goals - 1.60: France have cleared the total in every match, while Paraguay conceded four goals against the USA.

• Both teams to score - No - 1.55: France have conceded only two goals in four matches, while Paraguay have scored at most one goal in three of their four World Cup matches.

• France to score in the first half - 1.35: France opened the scoring before the break in three of their four matches.

• France, over 2.5 goals - 1.95: France have scored 3+ in every match at the tournament.

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line is shifted toward over - France have cleared the three-goal mark in 13 consecutive matches.

Over 2.5 at 1.60 is a workable option: France score plenty, while Paraguay know how to concede (four goals against the USA). Under 3.5 at 1.55 is an option if France close the game down after an early goal.

Handicap Prediction

France (-1.5) at 1.55 is the main choice. With a 2:0, 3:1 or 3:0 win, the bet lands. At 2:1, it is a push if taking (-1).

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Yes is 2.40, No is 1.55. Paraguay have scored in three of their four matches at the tournament, while France have conceded in two of four (against Senegal and Norway). A Paraguay blank is more likely, because France do not give opponents room to breathe; even Sweden, with Gyokeres and Isak, created only 0.70 xG and had three shots on target. Paraguay, with a more modest squad, can only dream of that.

Double Chance Prediction

X2 at 1.01 is a useless option. 1X at 4.60 is a lottery-style option on an upset. The market puts the probability of a draw at around 14% - below the tournament average (27%).

Individual Total Prediction

For this match, bookmakers have set the following individual totals: France - 2.5 goals, Paraguay - 0.5 goals.

France Individual Total

Bookmakers expect France to score 2-3 goals. There are also additional options.

As for Paraguay, bookmakers believe this team are highly likely not to score. One goal would already be a success.

The most likely scenarios are a France win to nil by two or more goals, or a match with only one France goal, which is unlikely.

The match will start on the night from Saturday into Sunday, 4 July 2026, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia (USA) at 22:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who Will Referee the Match

Ilgiz Tantashev (Uzbekistan)

Matches – 16 (International matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.6;
Matches with a red card – 5 out of 16;
Matches with a penalty – 2 out of 16.